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More than 60 million Americans have already voted. What the first numbers reveal and what not.
In line for pizza: activists in front of a polling station in New York.
Photo: Jason DeCrow (AP / Keystone)
There is still a week left before the decision is made: a week of campaigns, polls and speculations. Most Americans voted a long time ago – nearly 60 million voted early, which is much more than four years ago at the same time. Analysts estimate that between 140 and 160 million Americans will eventually vote. It would be a record. Four years ago there were 138 million voters.
It is not yet possible to say how the early and extraordinarily large run for the polls can be explained. It’s probably a mixed bag: due to the crown pandemic, most states have made early voting easier. In many places it has become easier for voters to request voting documents by post. At the same time, local electoral authorities have made sure in many places that there are more options for early personal voting at the polling station.
Many first-time voters
So new opportunities are one reason, Donald Trump the other. There are signs that the battle for the presidency will bring people to the polls for the first time or the first time in a long time to vote.
According to the AP news agency, a quarter of the votes cast so far come from new or irregular voters. No one can say today whether their votes will go to Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden, just as it is unknown who other voters voted for in advance.
However, some trends can be identified. According to a tally by the PA, 51 percent of early votes come from registered Democrat voters, only 31 percent come from Republican voters. The rest are voters who have no party affiliations.
A question of margin
This distribution is not surprising. For months, Democrats have been asking their supporters to vote as soon as possible. Most importantly, Republican supporters listened to Trump’s claims that mail-order voting was unreliable because it was massively deceived.
We could therefore speak of two elections: one before November 3, in which most of the votes will come from the Democrats. And one on November 3 itself, in der the majority of the voters will be Republican. Who will ultimately prevail depends on the margins. And they are usually scarce in the decisive states. (Read an analysis of the ailing US electoral system here.)
The advantage in Florida
In Florida for example, the biggest swing State, 5.7 million votes have been cast so far. Of these, just under 43% are Democrats and 36% are Republicans. To make up for this deficit, Trump’s party will have to bring far more people to the polls on November 3 than the Democrats.
Republicans did well in previous elections. Hillary Clinton also had an early voting advantage in 2016 and then lost it on election day.
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