Will chaos reign in the Arab world after “Corona”?

If the coronavirus epidemic can cause the deterioration of democracy and the tendency towards tyranny in Western democratic society, then what will the absence of democracy and the entrenchment of tyranny in Arab authoritarian society be? And if it was Extraordinary procedures in democracies Liberalism led to the abandonment of citizens’ freedoms. The new ideology of social distancing leads to the emergence of a totalitarian society of ineffective people, as the Italian philosopher Giorgio Agamben argues, so what is the fate of Arab society already plagued by totalitarian authoritarian regimes? The initial direct responses seem conclusive that the post-Crown Arab world is heading towards totalitarian, doubled, authoritarian regimes and a state of chaos and turmoil.

In light of indications that the severity of the spread of the Coronavirus epidemic is decreasing globally, and the announcement of its near-control in many countries of the world, the Arab world is considered the least affected by the virus itself and the most affected by the its repercussions, as the Arab world has not witnessed a major virus epidemic. According to the World Health Organization, more than 111,000 new cases of coronavirus and more than 5,500 deaths have been recorded in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Which includes 22 countries and extends from Morocco to Pakistan with the exception of Algeria, while the number of injured in the world has exceeded two million and deaths 140 thousand, however the measures followed by the Arab countries have been the most severe, cruel and influential at all political, economic and social levels, which will leave dangerous radical effects more dangerous than the Corona virus itself.

Several Arab regimes exploited the epidemic To get rid of demonstrations and protest movementsBy imposing emergency laws and exceptional measures, but the Arab uprisings of the second wave of the Arab Spring that rebelled against the authoritarian situation, the state of corruption, widespread poverty and misery, further reasons will be found for the demonstrations, taking advantage of the bad way in which governments have faced the crisis. It looks like the Arab uprisings will pick up their momentum once the Corona virus is gone, and some haven’t even waited. In Lebanon, the demonstrations have returned, as protesters stressed that “the sit-ins will continue”, stressing that “the revolution is not over”, and the signs of the return of the demonstrations are clear in Iraq and Algeria.

In this context, the American researcher specializing in Middle Eastern affairs, Frederick, wonders if the Corona virus will ignite a second Arab spring. In an article in the American New York Times, the outbreak of the Corona epidemic is likely to shed light on the inability of governance systems in the Middle East, and he commented that any rapid economic and health response can strengthen the authoritarian rule of these. schemes, but not for an indefinite period. He believed that a crucial lesson from the 2011 Arab riots and protests that broke out last year was that without more comprehensive governance, less corruption and more economic justice, technocratic and coercive tools are only temporary measures, as the virus will test capabilities. of seemingly stable governments. What makes this shock to the Middle East different and more intense is that the usual firefighters (a Gulf state bailout, international organizations, or superpowers) may not come as they did before. The leaders of the Arab world are on their own.

Harsh Arab authoritarian measures to limit the spread of the Crown have resulted in millions of workers losing their livelihoods, and many economic sectors such as tourism and others have been destroyed and workers’ remittances have stopped, which could fuel unrest and chaos, and the wealthy Gulf countries whose budgets depend on oil revenues will find themselves unable to achieve the usual luxury or service for their people, and will not be able to help other authoritarian regimes with the collapse of oil prices. According to the Economist magazine, the rulers of the Middle East will use an iron fist and repression to counter the effects of the Crown and the collapse of the oil price.

Of course, the Arab world will turn to Double authoritarian situationHe realizes that a wave of unrest and chaos is inevitably coming, and therefore he is investing the time of the epidemic to restore political agreements and authoritarian tasks, and he conducts training and conducts various experiments at all levels of political, legal, media, security and military, depending on its internal strengths. Israeli writer and politician Ksenia Svetlova had already warned that “a new Middle East will emerge from the Corona virus crisis”. Svetlova, a former member of the Israeli Knesset, said in an article to the daily Yedioth Ahronoth: “It is certain that the Middle East will change in the wake of the virus, with the fall of regimes, the collapse of infrastructure and chaos will prevail.” And he believed that the governments of the Middle East were unable to resist the turmoil that threatens to collapse the entire global economy.

The British Economist magazine pointed out that the drop in oil prices due to the spread of the Crown and the quota war between Russia and Saudi Arabia will reduce the budgets of the countries in the region, and this means that there is not much money to “bribe the people. “.

The Middle East will change, with the collapse of systems and the domination of chaos following the economic crisis that will follow the spread of the Corona virus. According to Eric Mandel of the Washington Post, “Corona virus is changing the way people live in the Middle East, just like anywhere else; but American foreign policy experts know we can’t lose sight of this region, especially with the almost certain fact. that chaos will prevail. After the outbreak of Covid-19, when the severity of the crisis subsides, the virus may have destroyed the stability of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and their collapsing societies and economies, directly affecting our security interests national.

All forecasts and predictions about the fate of the post-Corona Arab world seem pessimistic, as Michael Horvitz and Nick Grinsted from the Daily Beast website have claimed that one of the effects of the post-Corona virus in the Middle East is that new chaos will prevail. Conflicts in the region have long been temporarily frozen due to the spread of the virus, but the conflicts will not go away. Coronavirus is not a big equation and it will not lead to the disappearance of rivalries and wars. Like an earthquake, it exposes and widens the underlying weakness of states that were no longer prepared to deal with it and, as such, exacerbates the inequality that exists in the region. Like the deadly post-crisis shocks, the collapse in oil prices will deplete the balance sheets of countries that base their economies on oil resources. The authors point out that desperate people resort to desperate methods, and so desperate regimes resort to more repressive methods.

Post-Crown scenarios in the Arab world indicate nothing positive, as experts paint a disastrous picture. According to Dr. Eric Mandel, director of the Political Information Network in the Middle East, the outbreak of the Corona virus in Middle Eastern countries is likely to be followed by unprecedented consequences, unrest and challenges, urging US officials to start thinking and preparing for it. . Mandel added, in an article on the American website “The Hill”, that “the epidemic is likely to destroy the stability of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and their dysfunctional economies, and this will directly affect the national security interests of states. United “.

In summary, a pessimistic view prevails in the expectations about the future of the Arab world after the crisis of the Corona epidemic, where the predictions of disorder and chaos prevail, and the decline of the Arab regimes towards a more totalitarianism and an oppressive repressive doubling. delegation Foreign Policy magazine warned The US government claims that self-isolation can curb the Corona virus, but it will fuel extremism around the world. Arab authoritarian regimes have begun to rebuild post-Crown measures and agreements to consolidate their survival, and the values ​​of democracy, liberalism and individual freedoms are already lost in the Arab world, A distant dreamBut what is certain is that Arab authoritarianism will not congratulate the false stability, as the Corona crisis gave more reasons for a new wave of Arab Spring riots.