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The days of Bitcoin price forecasting (BTC) seem to have come to an end for Mr. Tom Lee, CEO of Fundstrat.
According to a Bloomberg report, in an e-mail to his clients on December 13, the co-founder of Fundstrat explained that his team was "tired" of forecasts.
"We are tired of people asking us for target prices … Because of the intrinsic volatility in the crypto, we will cease to provide any period of time for the realization of fair value."
Tom Lee has become one of the most famous characters in the ecosystem of cryptocurrency users and merchants for his constant statements that reflect his strong upside sentiment. On several occasions, particularly thanks to his participation in various shows on CNBC, Mr. Lee made predictions in which he claimed that Bitcoin would have ended the year at a very high price.
An excerpt from the Bloomberg article shows that perhaps beyond his tiredness, the reason may be due to the inaccuracy of his predictions:
"It's easy to see why." A review of Lee's research notes began in 2018 with a mid-year price target of $ 20,000 and a year-end projection of $ 25,000. at $ 15,000 in November, Bitcoin was trading at around $ 5,500, and has since dropped to around $ 4,000 – down more than 70 percent for the year.The latest "fair value" range of Lee is $ 13,800 to $ 14,800. "
Tom Lee refused to elaborate on the reasons for his decision and did not comment on his social networks or on behalf of the Fundstrat team.
Bitcoin's value forecasts were flawed not only by market volatility but also by a series of unpredictable events that significantly influenced price behavior. While technical analysis may be appropriate as a reference for predictions in ceteris paribus conditions, the reality is that in such a new market it is never easy to predict how much the ecosystem would react to random events like a SEC ruling. or the infamous BCH Hash War that was so damaging to users who had their money invested in cryptocurrencies.
Mr. Lee is not the only one who failed to predict the price of Bitcoin with a high degree of accuracy, but no other analyst has made a similar decision, and while it may seem drastic, even a temporary stop can be useful to help prevent excessive reactions or an excess or lack of confidence in amateur traders
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