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- The huge space rock known as Apophis will pass close to Earth several times over the next few decades.
- A collision with Earth has been ruled out for most of them, but one pass is still giving astronomers a reason to be nervous.
- When the rock approaches Earth in 2068, there is a slim chance it will hit us.
There are so many space rocks circling our Solar System that it’s hard to keep track of them, at least for those of us who don’t do it on a daily basis, but you’ve probably heard of the huge asteroid known as Apophis before. Apophis, also known as the “God of Chaos”, is an interesting object for a number of reasons, not least the fact that astronomers have not been able to rule out the possibility that the rock may actually hit the Earth in the future. not that far.
Such as Gizmodo reports, the back and forth about the possibility that Apophis could hit Earth in 48 years has been a real roller coaster. At one point it seemed clear that the asteroid wouldn’t pose a threat, but new research suggests there’s still a small chance it could actually hit Earth.
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So how have the forecasts changed? The researchers involved in the new study looked at a phenomenon called the Yarkovsky effect. It is the ability of asteroids to actually accelerate as they navigate through space. This is because asteroids like Apophis are not just dead chunks of rock, but contain different materials that can actually push the rock. Radioactive material, for example, can escape from the rock and give it a slight “pulse,” which may be enough to take it on a slightly different path and pose a danger to us or other planets.
“Without taking into account the Yarkovsky drift, Apophis is still a threatening object, just not in 2068,” said Dave Tholen, co-author of the new work. Gizmodo in a statement. “With Yarkovsky taken into consideration, the 2068 impact scenario is still in play. Small, but different from zero. “
A non-zero possibility sounds creepy, but it’s still a very, very small possibility. As a percentage, there is a roughly 0.00067% chance that the asteroid could impact Earth. However, if the rock is incredibly lucky and humanity is incredibly unfortunate, a collision would be devastating. Measuring over 300 meters in diameter and filled with metal, the asteroid would cause an incredible amount of damage if it hit Earth. The asteroid will make a couple of more distant passes than Earth before 2068, and the possibility of an impact during those passes has been ruled out, but not for 2068.
Mike Wehner has been reporting on technology and video games for the past decade, covering the latest news and trends in VR, wearables, smartphones, and the technology of the future. Most recently, Mike worked as a Tech Editor at The Daily Dot and appeared on USA Today, Time.com, and countless other websites and print media. His love of the news is second only to his addiction to games.
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