There is a possibility that in 2068 an asteroid will land on Earth – scientists are making plans

Unfortunately, every asteroid seen from afar has a couple of celestial bodies that we only notice when they fly relatively close to Earth, writes sciencealert.com. Even when we know in advance of an impending threat, it is not easy to accurately calculate the probability of a collision with our planet.

One such asteroid is 99942 Apophis. Its orbit makes you a little worried. The 370-meter-long celestial body discovered in 2004 was on NASA’s observation list. Scientists are absolutely convinced that it will not have to face Earth in 2029, but I am not sure if it will be able to avoid a catastrophe in 2068 when it returns.

Although the probability of a collision in 2068 is about one in 150,000, an asteroid of this size would cause a more powerful explosion than an atomic bomb, making recalculation better.

True, the presentation at the Virtual Conference of the American Astronomical Association’s Division of Planetary Sciences is unlikely to be reassuring. Late last month, David Tholen, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii, presented the results of his research and that of his colleague Davide Farnocchia. Scientists observed the asteroid Apophis for three nights in January and one night in March.

They were able to collect extremely accurate information about the celestial body and detect Jarkovsky’s acceleration. This means that the side of the asteroid facing the Sun radiates much more heat than the dark side, creating an asymmetrical moment that slightly changes its orbit.

Due to the Jarkovsky acceleration collision in 2068, the scenario cannot be ruled out, explained D. Tholen in his presentation. “This asteroid needs to be followed very closely. It is clear that its approach in 2029 will provide essential data,” the astronomer said.

2029 Apophis, which returns in April, will fly very close (closer to some communications satellites), giving scientists a wonderful opportunity to explore the asteroid in more depth. With less than nine years left, the Lunar and Planetary Institute held a virtual seminar this month to discuss future actions.

“Knowledge is the planet’s first line of defense. Apophis, which will fly in 2029, is a very rare opportunity, said representatives of the Moon and the Planetary Institute. – We must plan special missions in less than 10 years, during which the data collected would provide unprecedented knowledge of the physical properties of this asteroid. After all, it is one of the potentially dangerous celestial bodies. “

If we’re lucky, we could organize a Bennu-type mission to the asteroid Apophis and explore it with a spaceship, because you won’t see everything with telescopes. This asteroid is “a great opportunity to develop and demonstrate a threat response system near Earth’s orbit,” said Brent Barbee, an aerospace engineer at the University of Maryland, during a virtual conference.

Although George Dvorsky, a researcher who writes articles for Gizmodo, has identified a number of options, we have not yet decided exactly how to “welcome” a guest flying from space.

Maybe we will launch a new spaceship, send OSIRIS-Rex in a short reverse direction, or simply observe a celestial body from Earth, but we should still learn a lot of interesting things about an awkwardly close neighbor. Hopefully we can say exactly whether Apophis will face our planet in 2068 and decide what to do next.