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A government science advisor says there is now “really good evidence” about which sectors are most at risk for coronavirus transmission.
Calum Semple, professor of child health and epidemic medicine at the University of Liverpool, revealed which activities and occupations are classified as “high risk” despite restrictions of social distancing.
He said: “You would have thought that working outside would not be a risk, but many people in the construction industry are actually working inside before the buildings are protected from Covid.
“So the construction industry turned out to be a risk that I was surprised to see.”
And Professor Semple, who is a member of the government’s scientific advisory group on emergencies (Sage), warned that even with masks and social distancing, industries like pubs and hairdressers were still “high-risk businesses.”
He added: “It’s not just about hitting a mask and visor, it’s about not touching the mask, it’s about washing your hands.
“It’s difficult, nurses and doctors take years to learn how to do it correctly.”
When asked if changing pub closing times would make a difference, he said: “Fiddling around the edges of something like drinking hours or pub closing times is simply not an effective mechanism.
“With pubs and clubs you have to look at the whole human behavior and take into account human behavior, and I think that’s what was missing when this first moment came.
“I think whatever iteration you see next will be better informed by understanding human behavior and not pushing us to unintended consequences that can increase transmission, such as prematurely closing pubs and everyone taking to the streets at the same time.”
While the vaccine’s priority will be the most vulnerable and healthcare workers, Professor Semple said it could be distributed to the rest of the population by the summer.
Professor Semple said: ‘Vaccine priorities will inevitably be the most vulnerable and frontline health workers.
“I think we will see that it will be phased out around Christmas and New Year because the vaccine has already been ordered and we have had great results.
“The rest of the population, I believe, will look to the summer before this mass vaccination of the rest of the population, and that will give us immunity, broad immunity, which will allow us to get back to normal.”
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When asked whether social distancing should continue until a mass vaccination program is launched, he said: “I doubt it, because if we can vaccinate the frail and the elderly, then that will ease the pressure on groups that they will arrive at the hospital with a serious illness.
“I think we will see the restrictions lifted in the spring and I think there is a lot to be optimistic about.
“We also have great ways to take care of people now, so death rates in hospitals have dropped from one in three to one in six, so there’s a lot to be optimistic about here.”
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