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A human lunar landing in 2024, a goal that many in the industry had treated with skepticism even before the election, may now be out of reach. (credit: NASA) |
by Jeff Foust
Monday 9 November 2020
It may be hard to believe, in this age when the pandemic has warped our sense of time, that the focus of NASA’s human space exploration plans is not so new. It wasn’t until March 2019, just over 18 months ago, that Vice President Mike Pence announced that he was calling on NASA to bring humans back to the moon by 2024. Prior to his speech, NASA was working on a human landing. in 2028, after having assembled the moon portal.
| “Some have said they would like the landing to happen by 2024. Well, that would require a tremendous amount of resources,” Cantwell said. |
Although the human lunar return of 2024 was born on March 26, 2019, he may have died on November 7, 2020. On that day, former Vice President Joe Biden declared victory in his run against President Donald Trump after vote counts cleared up. that Pennsylvania won, placing it over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
Space, for obvious reasons, was not a problem during the presidential race. Biden’s campaign never published a political paper on space, leaving the topic to a single paragraph on the Democratic party platform:
Democrats continue to support the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and have pledged to continue exploration and discovery of space. We believe in continuing the spirit of discovery that animated NASA’s human space exploration, as well as its scientific and medical research, technological innovation and educational mission that allows us to better understand our planet and our place in the universe. We will strengthen support for the role of the United States in space through our continued presence on the International Space Station, working in partnership with the international community to continue scientific and medical innovation. We support NASA’s work to get Americans back to the Moon and further to Mars, taking the next step in exploring our solar system. Democrats also support stepping up NASA’s Earth observation missions and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to better understand how climate change is affecting our home planet.
Nothing in the passage suggests a radical shift in space politics. Many noted a greater emphasis on Earth science, which fits into a broader effort on climate change that the campaign has identified as one of its top overall priorities. The passage supports the continued operation of the ISS and even missions to the Moon and Mars.
Notably absent from that platform, however, there was any mention of a date for the Americans’ return to the moon. A landing in 2024 has always been considered ambitious at best, but the language in the platform makes it seem to many that a Biden administration, at the very least, will take its foot off the gas pedal of the Artemis program.
In the days following last week’s election day, as momentum shifted towards Biden’s campaign, more people seemed willing to speak out to express their skepticism about the 2024 deadline.
“I’m very excited about this program,” said Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA), a senior member of Artemis’s Senate Commerce Committee. In a speech Friday at a conference organized by the University of Washington’s Space Policy and Research Center, he said Congress “was very excited about Artemis in general.”
| “It doesn’t matter who won, this is an impossible goal,” Garver said. |
In general. “While there is a lot of excitement in Congress, there is not always a consensus on when and in what time frame we should achieve this Artemis goal,” he continued. “Some have said they would like the landing to take place by 2024. Well, that would require a huge amount of resources, so the debate will continue and I think we’ll get our NASA administrator and others to set a precise timetable. what it will really take to get back to the moon. ”
Later in the conference, Wendy Whitman Cobb, a professor at the US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies whose research includes space policy, offered a similar view. “I don’t think Artemis will be canceled. Also, I don’t think he’s going to get any more money than he’s currently getting, “he said.
“I think the 2024 deadline has always been a bit uncertain given the history of large-scale space projects,” he noted. “A Biden administration might feel a little better about letting go a little.”
Lori Garver, NASA’s deputy administrator during the Obama administration, was also skeptical of the 2024 deadline. “I don’t know anyone who thinks we’ll get there by 2024,” she said in a speech Saturday night at the Students for the SpaceVision 2020 conference. Exploration and Development of Space. “It doesn’t matter who won, this is an impossible goal.”
One reason for this skepticism is funding. In September, NASA released a report outlining its lunar exploration plans and funding needs. The agency expects to spend about $ 28 billion between fiscal years 2021 and 2025 solely on programs needed for the human lunar landing in 2024, the so-called “Phase 1” of the Artemis general program. More than half, or $ 16.2 billion, went to the Human Landing System (HLS) program to develop manned lunar landers.
That total included $ 3.2 billion in its fiscal year 2021 budget request. However, the House only provided about $ 600 million for HLS in its 2021 spending bill. The Senate hasn’t even released a draft bill. an expense bill. NASA, like the rest of the federal government, is working with an ongoing resolution funding it at fiscal 2020 levels until December 11, by which time Congress must have approved another CR or expense accounts for the whole year.
| “The only possibility would perhaps be to set the sites for lunar exploration and human landing there to be slightly later than 2024,” Shotwell said. “I know it was a long shot, to begin with.” |
“It is critically important to receive that $ 3.2 billion,” NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine said in September, arguing that without the funding it would not have been possible to maintain a 2024 landing on schedule. He told a Senate committee at the end of the month that funding for fiscal year 2021 was to be in place by February, when the initial “base period” of NASA’s HLS awards made in April to Blue Origin, Dynetics and SpaceX. has run out.
Even companies involved in the HLS program are skeptical of the idea of returning humans to the moon by 2024. Asked Monday during a panel at Euroconsult’s World Satellite Business Week Virtual Edition conference on the effects a Biden administration could have on his company , Gwynne Shotwell, president and COO of SpaceX, raised this goal.
“The only possibility would perhaps be to set the views for lunar exploration and human landing there to be slightly later than 2024,” he said. “I know it was a long shot at first. I think it would be great if we could continue working towards this, but they may want to provide more time before landing humans on the moon. ”
Proponents of the 2024 landing, including Bridenstine, said speed was essential to the program. Going quickly, he argued, helped protect the program from political risks and avoid the increased costs that come with extending the program.
Garver agreed. “If you say, oh, we’re going to extend it, it’s going to cost anyway, plus every year you’ll have to keep the standing army,” he said. “The transition team will have to figure that out.”
He said he expected Earth science activities “likely, in my view, will dominate a civilian space agenda for a Biden-Harris administration,” but exactly how it turns out remains to be seen. “Transitions are about understanding what is really happening versus what was said was happening, and once someone does, we will have a better idea.”
Lunar exploration, Garver said, should remain a target of some kind for spaceflight, but the question is the logic, which she thinks should support humanity. “Leaving the planet permanently is not a rush job. It’s a job that needs to be done in a way that is successful in the long run, “he said.” If we don’t invest really significant resources to enable humanity to be sustained on this planet, we won’t have time to leave it. You really can’t. do one without the other. ”
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