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Kuwait- The most pessimistic of the repercussions of the global situation before the spread of Corona did not expect that the Middle East and North Africa would witness a crisis like the one that the countries of the region are experiencing today, which are trying to cope with the health crisis. , regardless of the degree to which each government deals, but ultimately everyone will be faced with the inevitability of delaying any reform plans. Beyond 2025.
With growing concerns about Arab countries’ growing need for international donors and the development and political implications of rising short- and medium-term external debt, governments in the region could enter a renewed cycle of political crises that could move the way. against them because of their inability to adopt solutions that keep people out of their crises.
Estimates from the Risk Monitoring Department of the Arab Gulf Center for Studies and Research and based on a study of data from the most important international financial institutions, namely the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, indicate that the Covid-19 pandemic could slow down the pace of fundamental economic reforms in the region for about 5 years to come until full recovery begins From the fallout from the pandemic.
Experts from the Arab Gulf Center for Studies say that the difficult economic situation that Arab countries will accept could be an entry point that leads Israel and its allies to increase pressure on some countries through huge global financial institutions in order to approve new deals. normalization in exchange for financial aid packages with the guarantees of the great powers.
There are no potential indications on the horizon that America’s role in direct and indirect pressure to improve Arab countries’ relations with Israel will diminish under the terms of the Zionist lobbies affecting the United States and the world.
Normalization carries various peace slogans, but its results are likely to come at the expense of the limited geography of the occupied Palestinian territories and the survival of Jerusalem is a subject of controversy as it is gradually being imposed in international documents and among world circles as Israel’s capital. , pending international and Arab recognition of it in the future, and such recognition is unlikely to be achieved. Popular refusal.
The influence of foreign interference in Arab countries may increase at the expense of the expectation of a growing Arab divide over many important issues in the region, and this may be another reason for delaying the implementation of reform programs, especially in those countries that are still politically and fragile in terms of security.
As the debts of Arab countries increase, the need of these countries towards donors increases and the repercussions of this increase the alleged increase in dependence on external powers. These are the most important challenges for the future that force Arab countries to face either option, either financial dependence on the West and the loss of part of their sovereignty, or national revitalization and joint Arab cooperation to fulfill aspirations. of peoples, especially young people.
All Arab countries face a number of common challenges ranging from youth unemployment to climate change and terrorism, and this can provide the necessary impetus for Arab cooperation, but in particular it shows that bilateral approaches are no longer enough as none of the above issues can be addressed without enhancing joint Arab cooperation.
However, the increased monitoring of the widening of the gap between the positions of Arab regimes, which can choose nationalism in their policies, may be the reason for delaying reforms, which can damage Arab economic integration or the exchange of intelligence. .
History seems to be repeating itself in most Arab countries, and the dangers are renewing themselves in various forms. While terrorism has led the entire region to enter the entire region in a cycle of serious unrest that has led to the path of economic recovery being diverted from the repercussions of the so-called “Arab Spring”, with its focus on combating religious extremism , neglected Implementing major reforms that would create jobs, stimulate innovation and economic diversification and contribute to growth and greater stability.
Today, most Arab countries, especially low-income countries, face the same risks with a planned diversion of development plans and a return to focus on combating violence, terrorism and potential unrest, as likely repercussions during the end of the devastating Corona epidemic at the expense of important reforms that should remain overdue.
The Covid-19 pandemic could slow the pace of fundamental economic reforms in the region for about 5 years to come until full recovery from the fallout from the pandemic begins
And after the “Arab Spring” revolutions in 2011, and after the end of terror with the liquidation of ISIS in 2017, and before the invasion of the global epidemic at the end of last year, Arab expectations were optimistic, with a 5 percent average growth and a temporary drop in food prices, part of the official and popular aspirations.
And those hopes depended on the confidence of the ruling elites in the positive prospects drawn by local and international economic forecasts, which prompted decision makers in some Arab countries to postpone reforms for many years, but this delay could last longer after the ‘epidemic.
Instead of growth expectations, Arab economies, which had begun to recover from the turmoil of 2011, have resumed contracting due to several factors, notably the emergence of the epidemic, national security risks and the repercussions of state closures that lead to a slowdown in optimism on the horizon, especially in poor and low-income countries. Growth prospects.
All of these situations are consistent with increased monitoring of worrying indicators such as a combination of insecurity, instability and unsustainability of support, and the impact of this on food price inflation and the collapse in purchasing power in light of worsening indicators. unemployment and rising poverty rates.
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