The “mouse model” helps to decipher the way we make decisions

When people make choices, they have to evaluate a number of variables. What is the risk? What is the gain or the cost? What upheaval will the choice cause? What is the likely outcome?

The researchers employed a range of techniques, from brain scans to personal surveys, to try to measure the inherent conflicts involved in making these choices. In a new study, Yale researchers used a simple tool usually available at our fingertips: the computer mouse.

They found that when subjects are presented with choices on a computer screen, the way they move the mouse when making their choice can not only show how much people conflict with making a decision, but actually predict both their underlying preferences and future choices. The findings were published November 23 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“In theory, the information contained in the mouse movements can not only predict what people will buy, but potentially answer other questions from society, such as whether they will wear a mask in public during the pandemic or who they will vote for,” the author said. senior Melissa Ferguson, professor of psychology at Yale.

For the study, Ferguson, Paul Stillman of Yale School of Management, and Ian Krajbich of Ohio State University recorded mouse movements made by approximately 650 subjects presented with different game options on a computer screen. Should they make a bet with a 50-50 chance of winning or fold and accept a certain outcome?

The way individuals moved their mouse before clicking on their choice offered a measure of their degree of conflict. For example, even when a person has finally decided on a risky choice, if the mouse movements have moved to the safe choice along the intended path, the person may be against the risk. In fact, these subjects who showed that kind of drifting motion selected safe options in subsequent tests. Conversely, those whose mouse movements were directed towards the riskiest bet were more likely to take the most risk in future tests.

The “mouse model” of decision making helps solve the underlying challenges by studying how people make choices. As inaccurate polls during the recent presidential election reminded us, what people say they do and what they actually do is sometimes different.

“If asked in a survey, people could say that during Thanksgiving they would limit family reunions to a few people because of the pandemic,” Ferguson said. “However, if you present them with different options on a computer screen about the size of family reunions during the holidays and follow the mouse, you might see that they really have different plans.”

“By measuring the movements of the computer mouse as people decide, we can better understand whether they will follow or do something completely different,” Ferguson said.