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The latest coronavirus data will provide some sort of reality check to the Liverpool city region – with a decrease in stalled numbers – and it will actually appear to increase in some areas.
For weeks now the numbers have been rapidly decreasing in all boroughs in the region, which has seen the area avoid the toughest level of new restrictions and begin life in Level 2.
This rapid downfall came after the city’s region was the first to come under the highest level of restrictions in October.
For six weeks, the numbers continued to decline, with the city of Liverpool cutting the infection rate from around 750 cases per 100,000 to less than 100.
However, the most recent data provides a warning that things can change and worry before the impact of loosened restrictions is felt.
Health chiefs would have hoped that infection levels across the region would continue to plummet in the run-up to level 2 restrictions.
But ECHO analysis of the latest data shows that the numbers have stabilized over the past few days and in some cases have increased slightly.
This will be a concern as the latest data doesn’t include the most recent days of relaxed measures that have seen people able to travel, shop and meet more than ever before.
The numbers for each area continue to decline on a weekly basis, although in some areas this has slowed significantly.
For example in St Helens, the latest infection rate for the 7-day period up to 29 November is 140.7 cases per 100,000 people.
This is a drop of around 18% from the previous week.
But the week before saw a 43% drop in numbers, which shows how much that process has slowed down in the district.
The decrease in Knowsley’s infections has also slowed.
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The district, once the most affected in the country, has managed to reduce the infection rate to about 115 cases per 100,000.
But once again the process of reducing these numbers has slowed: it decreased by 26% in the last week compared to 38% in the previous week.
Falls in Liverpool and Sefton also slowed slightly.
Wirral seems to be bucking the trend and lowering the speed once again.
The district has the lowest infection rate with 59.6 cases per 100,000 people and this process is actually increasing, based on the latest numbers.
But if we look very closely at the most recent data, it appears that there has indeed been a small increase in infection levels in some areas.
St Helens’ infection level went from 134.6 to 140.7 between Friday 25 and Sunday 27 November.
Over the same period, Liverpool’s infection level went from 99.8 to 98 and then climbed back to 99.4
These are obviously small changes, but they potentially represent a tendency of cases to stabilize or perhaps just to pick up again.
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This will provide a warning to healthcare leaders who know how quickly this virus can come back.
In early September, Liverpool’s infection rate was about 30 cases per 100,000 people – a month later it had risen to nearly 700 when the city and region were placed at the highest level of restrictions.
This is obviously something everyone will want to avoid and local leaders have urged people across the region to be very careful as restrictions are loosened in Level 2.
Metro Mayor for the Region Steve Rotheram said, “Let’s be clear: Coronavirus still poses a major threat to the lives of people and businesses across our region.
“We all have a duty to continue acting responsibly to protect each other. The worst gift you can give someone this Christmas is the coronavirus.
“Please help us avoid this by doing your part to save lives, protect the NHS and prevent a third peak.”
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