The good news followed one another all the way to the black line with head up and clogs |

Summary

[Buone notizie seguite dalla serie nera]Delayed high season, concentrated release of demand, limited supply … Under the resonance of multiple favorable factors, the price of the Black Series has continued to strengthen from its low point rebound this year. The main forces of Coking Coal and Coking Futures have risen more than 40% from this year’s low. Iron Ore Futures have exited the three-year bull market, with a cumulative increase of more than 100% . Black stocks have also shifted frequently recently. (China Securities Journal)

Late high season, centralized release demand, tightsupply…… Under the resonance of multiple favorable factors, black varietiespriceThis year continued to strengthen after the rebound from the lowest point: hot coils, coking coal and coking futuresMain strengthFrom this year’s low point, the increase has exceeded 40% and iron ore futures have exited the three-year bull market, with a cumulative increase of more than 100%. Black stocks have also shifted frequently recently.

“Three months ago, we communicated in the circle. Many people weren’t optimistic about steel stocks. Recently, they’ve seen it grow one by one.” Mr. Li, a private equity investment manager who has always wanted to buy steel stocks but failed to get started, said with regret.

　　The black variety Chengxiang 饽饽

Earlier this year, Mr. Ma, an investor who always likes to think, created an account for his wife to “buy steel”. “I asked her to buy everything in steelETFNo matter how much I bought, I was counting on losing money and counting on her when I made money. Unfortunately, he didn’t dare to buy and only invested 100,000 yuan. “

Mr. Ma said, “My portfolio consists of two stocks and steel ETFs. So far, the income is around 20%. It’s a shame to buy less. This wave of long black futures will make more profits.”

According to data from Wenhua Finance and Economics, at the close of November 25, the main strengths of futures on rebar, hot coil, coking coal, coking and thermal coal increased by 28.3%, 40.2%, respectively. , 42.1%, 56.6% and 29.8% from the lows of the year. It is worth mentioning that since iron ore futures rebounded from the 2018 low of 424.5 yuan / ton, the cumulative increase so far has reached 107.3%.

In the A-share market, statistics show that from the low point of this year, three steel stocks have doubled their prices.Hongda MiningAn increase of 369.60%,ST FugangIt increased by 277.85%,Yulong sharesAn increase of 171.36%.Fangda special steel、Bayi SteelGrowth rates are all above 40%.

Black futures mainly include rebar and hot coil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and DalianProductCoking coal futures and stock exchange coke futures and iron ore futures internationalized Armor is blackindustryThe central sections of the chain are the main varieties of the black series.

　　Industrial chainPerformanceGreatly improved

Among the black varieties, the bull market for iron ore futures has entered its third year and the upward trend is particularly evident. Cao Youming, director of the Shanjin Futures Research Institute, told a China Securities News reporter that the fundamental reason is that the rate of growth of iron ore supply has not kept pace with the rate of growth of demand.

“Iron ore futures in 2018price adjustmentAfter reaching a low level, Brazil’s mining accident in 2019 caused a drop in iron ore supply and the country entered a cycle of destocking. Earlier this year, due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the price of iron ore once fell, but then due to the rapid recovery of downstream demand, the price of iron ore is quickly entered an ascending channel. A very important reason is that due to the impact of the epidemic, mines have appeared upstream. The phenomenon of the production stop. “Cao Youming said.

Since 2018, cast iron production has continued to reach new highs andYear after yearThe growth rate is also expanding. Xia Xuezhao, senior researcher at Southwest Futures, found on the basis of the plotted iron production data: “In 2017, China’s pig iron production was about 710 million tons, an increase of 1.8% over the year. previous year. Pig iron production in 2018 and 2019 was 770 million tons and 810 million tons respectively. Around tons, the year-on-year growth rate was 3.3% and 5.3% respectively %. From January to October 2020, Chinese pig iron production was around 740 million tons, an increase of 4.3% year on year “.

Cao Youming said: “Recently, the market is optimistic about the future trend of cyclical products. Many institutions have indicated that bulk commodities will enter a bull market in 2021. Indeed, commodities have already entered a market. bullish. With the rising prices of coking coal, coking and steel, the performance of the industrial chain has improved significantly., Overlapping market expectations have changed, which has caused the recent rise in related stocks to black. Improved performance is an important condition for the rise of such cyclical stocks. “

Xia Xuezhao analyzed to a China Securities News reporter that the listingthe companyprofitIt is an important factor affecting stock prices,ProductPrice is also an important factor in the company’s profits, however, black ones are often seenproduct priceInconsistent with the price performance of related black shares. Rising prices for black products don’t necessarily mean that the company’s profits will increase – if the price of raw materials rises too much, profits could be squeezed. Plus, corporate profits aren’t the only factor that dominates stock prices.Cash flowBoth market dynamics and atmosphere can cause stock price fluctuations.

　　Collection of institutional views

SDIC Essence Futures: Recently, overseas shipments to Australia and Pakistan have declined and port inventories have continued to decline slightly from the previous month. Additionally, there is some demand for supply as domestic steel mills’ profits continue to rebound. The recent colder weather has led to a sharp decline in finished product consumption, which has also suppressed expectations of subsequent iron ore demand and market sentiment. The short-term trend is expected to be mainly turbulent.

　　South China Futures: At the moment, steel profit has increased significantly, but routine maintenance of steel mills in the fourth quarter is concentrated and the weather turns cold, downstream demand could be affected and iron ore demand is expected to function weakly . In the future, we have yet to look at the driving effect of terminal demand on iron ore prices.

　　MeryaFutures: Both supply and demand fell this week. On the supply side, shipments of minerals from abroad have decreased; on the demand side,Utilization of capacityMaintained at 90.25%, but the blast furnace’s production of molten iron decreased. The fundamental loosening trend of iron ore itself has changed.

Huatai Futures: The current supply and demand pattern of the iron ore market is relatively slow and the sharp improvement in steel mill profits will have some supportive effect on iron ore prices. The market has gradually realized that in the first half of 2021 iron ore will continue to experience gaps between supply and demand.

　　The likelihood of recent shocks and callbacks is greater

Looking forward to the black series market prospects, Cao Youming said the current black seriesOverall productIt is already at a high level during the year and is about to enter the low consumption season. Spot demand is facing a seasonal contraction and spot market transactions have progressively weakened. It is mainly downstream supply demand that supports spot prices. From the perspective of past seasonality, from now until early spring next year, the black series price generally shows high volatility and the room for correction is relatively limited. For nearly one month contracts, becauseBaseBigger, the nearly month-long contract should be back in place and you can still try to do it more lightly. After the 2021 Spring Festival, we must beware of the risk of price correction.

Xia Xuezhao suggested: “It is now late November. With the advent of winter, the downstream demand for steel, especially construction steel, will gradually weaken. The top of the black system has a high probability of appearing. In the next period of time, there will be a shock recall pattern. Investments. People can try to go short based on this wave of rising highs. “

It is worth noting that iron orePrice fluctuationIt is directly related to changes in the profits of steel mills.Raw materialsSteel mills with effective hedging have benefited most from this cycle of price increases. “Iron ore is the most important raw material produced by steel mills and its price increase will undoubtedly increase the production costs of steel mills. In this context, the purchase of covers is very important for the production of steel mills and a cover effective can be beneficial to steel mills. Profits are well protected, “Xia Xuezhao said.

Cao Youming said that from the point of view of steel mills, if they participate in the coverageHedgeIt can effectively reduce the purchase cost of iron ore, because iron ore futures have been heavily discounted in recent years, and only the discount can effectively reduce the purchase cost of raw materials for steel mills. As a result of early shell purchase, it can also effectively reduce the impact of rising iron ore prices and freeze raw material costs early. As this market is a bull market as a whole, prices continue to rise as a whole, and early buys have an advantage over late buys.

(Source: China Securities Journal)

(Responsible publisher: DF512)