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Apophis was first discovered by astronomers in 2004. Shortly thereafter, researchers determined its orbital path and found that the 340-meter-wide asteroid will pass close to Earth in 2029, 2036 and again in 2068.
Further research suggests it is possible that the asteroid could hit Earth; therefore, it was perceived as a threat.
David Tholen, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii, recently reported on the state of Apophis during a virtual meeting of the American Astronomical Society’s Division for Planetary Sciences.
During his presentation, he outlined the research he and his team are doing on his path and the likelihood of Apophis reaching Earth.
Recently, Tholen and his team noted that previous researchers have not taken into account the Yarkovsky effect in which sunlight hits one side of an asteroid. When heat radiates from the asteroid, a small amount of energy pushes it, forcing it to spin.
Tholen and his team calculated that the Yarkovsky effect of pushing Apophis to one side was enough to force him to soar at around 170 meters per year. They later applied that little bit of knowledge to mathematics that describes Apophis’ orbit and found that the shift changed direction and would bring it closer to Earth.
He noted that so far there are no indications that an asteroid will hit Earth in 2029 and 2036, but 2068 could be another matter. He suggested that astronomers should keep an eye on Apophis as time approaches.
When news of a possible threat from Apophis surfaced, others indicated that humanity had made great strides in protecting the planet from asteroid attacks. NASA’s DART mission, for example, scheduled for 2022, will involve sending a spacecraft to an asteroid called Didymos and using it to change the path of Dimorphos, one of its moons.
Tholen noted during his speech that the study of Apophis as it passed in 2029 should give scientists a much better idea of whether or not it poses a real threat by 2068.
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