The future of the real estate market and the stock market is concentrated on this day

Original title: The future of the real estate market and the stock market are focused on this day

The first day of December is very unusual.

Chinese peoplebankGuo Shuqing, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, published a document clearly stating thatreal estateDeeply connected with the financial sector,real estateIt is the greatest financial risk at this stage “Gray rhinoceros“。

wantreal estateThis is the first time in the official context that it is characterized as the largest “gray rhino”, and it isSupervisorThe leader of the Chinese financial industry is very unusual.

The hazards of the gray rhino refer to such common potential seizures that they are used to, but they continue to pile up with a high probability of occurrence and great impact. Compared to the unexpected risk of the black swan, the gray rhino has a significance of man-made disaster.

“Gray Rhino” is still the name of a bestseller. In this book, author Michel Walker mentions a typical gray rhinoPencil case—— The US housing bubble in 2008.

Yesterday was the first day of trading for A shares in December and the stock index rose sharply.bankEquities contributed most of the index’s gains, manybankDaily limit of stocks.The bank’s shares weremarketForgotten for a long time, this long-lost trend is very unusual.

From Guo Shuqing’s characterization of the “gray rhino” real estate sector to the daily limit of bank stocks, a very unusual signal can be seen through the two:loanparagraphinterest rateStabilize and bounce.

Yes, market capitalpriceHe started to narrow his margins rather than keep losing. New release in SeptemberloanWeighted averageinterest rateIt was 5.12%, an increase of 6BP since June loaninterest rateHe started to go higher and gave up the banking sectorprofitThe recovery has brought expectations. third quater,productionThe growth rate of medium and long-term loans was 30.5%, up for 11 consecutive months, while in the second quarter it reached the highest level of the last 10 years. The growth rate of home loans has been declining since June 2018. The difference in loan growth rates reflects changes in the economic structure. This modification is an objective law and a requirement of political orientation.

Everything must follow the policy The reading of the financial policy depends on the central bank website. Recently, the central bank’s official website created a new “Political Research” section and published three heavy articles one after another.

The first is “Revisiting Chinese Finance” by current central bank governor Yi GangResource structureAnd political implications “, stressing financialProperty riskFocus on the bank to stabilize leverage and developDirect financing, Manage risks in key areas. The central bank has stepped up its focus on “risk prevention” and “leverage stabilization”.Rigid payment“” Recessiveguarantee“The development of direct funding in policy recommendations is a long-term solution to the risk distribution problems caused byReal estate financingIn recent years, moderation has not been very loose. Right now, the most important thing to pay attention to is the “macroLever“We must insist on” stabilization of the financial leverage “.

The second chapter is Guo Shuqing’s “Unswervingly Fighting the Tough Battle to Prevent and Resolve Financial Risks”, focusing on macro leverage, non-performing assets,Bank of ShadowsIn other key areas, it is argued that attention should be paid to “demining” in advance.

The third article is “Expanding the concept and measuring inflation” by Zhou Xiaochuan, the former governor of the Central Bank. The subject of this article is slightly obscure, referring to inflation.to measureIgnoring asset prices is a reflection on the unlimited stimulus policies of advanced economies, but where does the measurement of domestic inflation deviate? I’m afraid it’s also a house problem.

There is reason to believe that these three articles are not purely academic exchanges.

(Source: Qingdao Finance and Economics Daily)

(Responsible publisher: DF524)