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An analysis of weather patterns in Inner East Asia over the past 260 years suggests that the region is currently involved in a dangerous cycle of heatwaves and droughts that could forever reshape the area and possibly turn the Mongolian Plateau into a barren one. desert.
New research published today in Science is painting an alarming picture of the current climate situation in Inner East Asia. Contemporary heatwaves and droughts in the region are occurring more often now than they were 20 years ago, but as the new study points out, the current climate situation in the region is unprecedented in the past 260 years. The authors of the new paper came to this conclusion after analyzing tree rings, which document droughts and heat waves dating back to the mid-18th century.
This is bad because the region will be even more susceptible to extreme hot and dry weather conditions. The Mongolian Plateau is currently a semi-arid region, but it may not remain so. The type of climate that has been predicted, in which the region will suffer even more heat waves and droughts, could make the region as dry and arid as parts of the southwestern United States, according to the study.
By analyzing tree rings from the Mongolian plateau, the researchers were able to tell when heat waves and droughts had occurred in the past and when the ground was wet. The results showed that current temperatures in Inner East Asia are unprecedented in the record of 260 years.
“Conifers respond strongly to anomalous temperatures,” Linderholm said. “By examining their growth rings, we can see their response to recent heatwaves and we can see that they do not appear to have experienced anything like this in their very long lives,” Hans Linderholm, a study co-author and climatologist at the University of Gothenburg, explained in a statement prepared by Utah State University.
Like the words in a book: a cross section of Scots pine, one of several tree species used in the study. (Image: Peng Zhang)
The current problem has to do with excessive drying of the soil. Well, technically the problem has to do with man-made climate change, but you know what I mean.
Evaporation from moist soil cools the air immediately above the surface. Without moisture, however, the heat transfers directly into the air around the ground. This creates a negative feedback loop – high temperatures are increased by drying out the soil, but as the soil dries out this leads to even more heat. As to where it ends, “we can’t tell,” said Deliang Chen, a co-author and researcher at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden.
Hyungjun Kim, co-author and climate scientist at the University of Tokyo, said the process could lead to the activation of “an irreversible feedback loop” that could accelerate the region “towards a warmer and drier future”.
This could eventually lead to an irreversible tipping point that would move the region into a permanent state of aridity. And indeed, we may have already passed this tipping point, as the “semi-arid climate of this region has entered a new regime in which soil moisture no longer mitigates the exceptionally high air temperature,” as they wrote. the authors in the study.
There are other warning signs to be aware of. Research from China suggests lakes are decreasing in size across the Mongolian Plateau. Over the past six years, scientists have documented a 26% decrease in the number of lakes larger than 1 square kilometer. But as the new research shows, it’s not just lakes that lose water, but soil too. The change in the landscape will wreak havoc on local ecosystems, including large herbivores such as wild sheep, antelope and camels.
“It’s one thing to acknowledge that ‘normal’ climatic conditions are changing,” said Daniel Griffin, a University of Minnesota scientist who is not involved in the new study. “But what worries me most is thinking about the extreme events of the future: how serious can they become? And if the “new normal” is extremely hot and dry by historical standards, then the future extremes could be different from anything previously observed. “
Importantly, the climate situation in Inner East Asia could affect the climate in other parts of the Northern Hemisphere, as weather in this part of the world is linked to global atmospheric circulation, according to the press release. Indeed, climate change knows few borders and its reach is long. Unfortunately, the Tibetan Plateau, with its majestic snow-capped mountains and vast grasslands, is also not immune.
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