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After claiming dozens of Manitoban’s lives, the wave of COVID-19 cases is now expected to hammer the provincial economy strong enough to delay recovery until 2022.
The Conference Board of Canada expects Manitoba’s economic growth and employment to lag behind Canada as a whole next year, mainly due to the huge increase in COVID-19 cases this fall and subsequent restrictions put in place. to try to slow the spread of the disease.
“Given the recent surge in COVID-19 cases in the province, we expect Manitoba’s recovery to full economic health to be delayed until 2022,” the council says in a provincial economic outlook that is expected to be released next week.
“Manitoba coped well during the first wave of COVID-19 in Canada earlier this year, reporting far fewer cases than many other provinces. But it has not been able to evade the second wave of the pandemic.”
Manitoba has the highest rate of new COVID-19 infections in Canada. In recent weeks, hundreds of new cases have been announced daily in a province of just under 1.4 million people.
As a result, the Conference Board expects Manitoba’s real gross domestic product to drop 6.2% this year, which is better than the 6.6% contraction expected for Canada as a whole. In 2021, Manitoba’s economy is expected to grow 3.5%, more than two points below the national rebound of 5.6%.
The work picture isn’t much better. Employment in Manitoba is expected to decline 3.2% this year, which is far better than the national decline of 5.4%. In 2021, employment in Manitoba is expected to grow 3.6%, below a national increase of 4.9%.
“Having regained most of the jobs lost due to pandemic-related factors, the province is now facing difficult months with the resurgence of cases and the resulting increase in restrictions,” the council said in its report.
The Conference Board says Manitoba’s economy overall outperformed Canada this year in terms of employment and sales, although the start of housing was below the national average.
Manitoba’s manufacturing sector is expected to decline by 9.6% this year, mainly due to reduced demand for aerospace and transportation equipment during the pandemic.
The Conference Board expects the transportation and storage sector to decline by 15.9% this year and only recover slightly in 2021.
Greater stability in the financial, insurance and real estate sectors, however, will provide the province with some stability next year, according to the report’s drafts.
Manitoba’s progressive conservative government is more optimistic than the Conference Board.
“Although the economic impact of the pandemic has been difficult for all provinces, Manitoba’s economy is doing better than most and is among the best in terms of employment levels, unemployment rate, retail sales, manufacturing sales. , merchandise exports and residential and non-residential investments, ”Finance Minister Scott Fielding said in a statement.
Fielding’s office said an economic forecast survey suggests the provincial economy could decline 3.1 to 6.3 percent this year.
It hasn’t presented a screening for 2021.
“We kept a cautious approach to our provincial GDP forecasts during the pandemic and recognized that significant risks remain that could fundamentally change the outlook,” Fielding said.
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