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Concerned American experts discuss the issue of US policy towards the Middle East and its expectations under the administration of President-elect Joe Biden. There were several questions, the most important of which were three: when and how will the United States change with regard to the nuclear deal with Iran? Is there a project to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? What is the fate of the standardization agreements?
These three questions must have struck the minds of political leaders in the Arab world, as none disagree on the importance of the question: How will Biden deal with the Middle East?
Here we select, for approval and comment, the answers provided by a number of American specialists, which have been published by the Jerusalem Post. I am David Makovsky, director of the Washington Institute for the Near East Policy Project and the Middle East Peace Process, and director of the “Curette” project on Arab-Israeli relations at the Washington Institute, who, together with Dennis Ross, is co-author of “Myths, Illusions, and Peace “.
Jonathan Schanzer, vice president of the American Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, and Dennis Ross of the Washington Institute, who was a veteran American adviser and peace process mediator during the Clinton and George HW Bush administrations, also participated in answering questions from the Middle East.
There is no reason to ignore the Palestinians. You can follow these fringe agreements, and all these normalization agreements and, at the same time, it’s about the Palestinians
Makovsky says: “The new administration will focus on Covid-19 even after signs of a vaccine appear. This is because the economic effects of the pandemic are very serious and exacerbated by other problems such as climate change and health care, as well as foreign policy problems, particularly how to deal with China. Therefore, those involved in the Middle East should “calibrate” their expectations well, and not be optimistic about an upcoming fundamental move!
Jonathan Schanzer said: “Biden inherits many internal difficulties that will push the Middle East to the lowest priority. It is about Covid-19, about rebuilding the economy, in a way that helps to address the internal political division. I think the nature of the mandate expressed in the election results is not to focus on the outside, to keep things focused in the United States. The Americans hope the presidency will monitor the distribution of the vaccine well. There are other internal challenges that require the President’s attention. So I think the Middle East will seem less urgent, at least in the first year, or perhaps within the next two years. “
Dennis Ross confirms what his colleagues have said and says internal matters will take precedence. “We could see a wave of pandemics of up to two hundred thousand infections a day by May,” he added. We need to focus on anticipating the disaster. “
In answering the question to return to the Iran nuclear deal, Makovsky said: “The president-elect wants to renew the joint action plan with the Europeans, provided that Iran adheres to the terms of the agreement. The Iranians did not comply. So it will take some time ”.
Makovsky continues: “The most important statement in Biden’s statements on this subject is that we must be careful and not rush.” Perhaps this is his main criticism of Israel, which opposed the enrichment suspension clause.
As for Jonathan Schanzer, he said: “The Iranian question will be raised before others. There is still a debate within the Democratic Party foreign policy establishment over whether to return to the joint action plan. Among the interesting questions are those relating to the type of personnel who will be involved in the details of the nuclear dossier, are they former engineers of the work plan, or different people? Are they linked to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party or do they represent the centrists?
“Israelis, Emiratis and Bahraini can now speak with one voice,” he added. And I think the new alliance we are witnessing in the Middle East may have some influence on future US policy towards Iran. In the past, Israel spoke for itself when it raised protests. This time, I don’t think that’s the case. “
Dennis Ross replies to Schanzer: “It’s hard to go back to the JCPOA. You are looking at it assuming there are negotiations that will take some time. But I think the Biden administration’s first position is not to communicate with Iranians. “This administration will work to restore a common position with the British, French and Germans, to formulate a unified policy, not only on the nuclear issue, but also on ballistic missiles and on Iran’s behavior in the region.”
In answer to the question, what will happen to the normalization agreements reached by the Trump administration, and to those normalization projects that are in their embryonic stages? Makovsky replied: “I think Biden will build on what Trump has done with regards to normalization. This is one of the few cases where he has not opposed the previous administration. On the contrary, he saw it as a big step. In my opinion, the “Ibrahim agreements” can be a bridge, not a ring road “.
And just as the UAE infiltration halted the annexation of the West Bank, the situation could repeat itself, and with every step taken by Arab countries towards Israel, Israel will take a step against the Palestinians.
“I think there is an awareness among the Biden advisers that there are real opportunities for peace building in the wake of the Ibrahim accords,” Schanzer replies. We are looking into the possibility of joining the Sultanate of Oman, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and possibly Qatar. The Biden administration will almost certainly seek to exploit these opportunities in the future. The only question really is whether the same time or effort will be spent on the Palestinians in order to accommodate this process.
“There is no reason to ignore the Palestinians. You can follow these fringe agreements, and all these normalization agreements, and at the same time, it’s about the Palestinians. Actually I think this will give the administration some leverage. When Palestinians see other countries following in the footsteps of the Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, they will be convinced that this is a context that encourages settlement. It is difficult to imagine that they can ignore this context. So far, it seems that this is still very difficult to happen.
The new administration will focus on Covid-19 even after signs of a vaccine appear. This is because the economic effects of the pandemic are so disastrous
Dennis Ross said: “I think other countries will follow the example of the UAE and Bahrain, but they will do so gradually. Palestinians also need to realize that they are left behind and that Arab countries are quite clear in their refusal to allow Palestinians to further define their policies towards Israel according to their own interests. “Something broader is happening now,” he said. This is why this normalization process continues. But this process will not necessarily continue in the same way that an Arab country suddenly appears and says: Well, we will do full normalization with Israel. My belief is that we will see Arab countries take fewer steps. But she will probably say to herself and the Arab world: Look, when we take the step, we are waiting to see what the other side is doing for the benefit of the Palestinians. Dennis Ross explains his point, saying: “In that gradual context, governments that are gradually moving towards normalization will say as if they are turning to Israel: we don’t give 100 percent and we also don’t ask you for 100 percent.” .
On the possibility of the Biden administration promoting a peace initiative between Palestinians and Israelis, Makovsky replied: “I tend to believe that Biden will go in the first phase to work to end the Palestinian boycott.” I expect it will be more like taking symbolic steps in this regard, such as reopening the US consulate in East Jerusalem and knowing what is possible through resuming humanitarian aid to Palestinians. I think the Palestinians would do well to make this possible by changing their laws to avoid the administration being forced to continue working in accordance with the “Taylor Force” law passed by Congress to stop aid to the Palestinian Authority (the purpose of this warning is the question of military actions against the occupying forces, and what they call incitement) “.
As for Dennis Ross, “I don’t think there will be a great deal of detente between Israelis and Palestinians, and that doesn’t mean diplomacy will stop.” When there is no diplomacy, a vacuum is born. In fact, there have been no direct political talks between Israelis and Palestinians since spring 2014 and it will not be correct to launch some new initiatives, large and automatic, which will surely fail at this stage.
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