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According to the United Nations, this week’s early entry into force of the Paris Agreement on climate change will not save the planet from rising seas, storms and deadly drought, according to the United Nations.
With no further commitments to reduce emissions, temperatures are expected to rise to 3.4 degrees Celsius (6.1 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial levels, according to a report from the United Nations Environmental Program on Thursday. The findings risk making the December Paris Agreement obsolete even before it goes into effect on Friday, two years earlier than expected.
“We will grieve over the avoidable human tragedy,” UNEP head Erik Solheim said in a statement. “The growing number of climate refugees affected by hunger, poverty, disease and conflict will be a constant reminder of our failure to deliver.”
Despite swift action by 92 countries that made the Paris Agreement legally binding faster than previously thought possible, the agreement’s goal of keeping temperatures well below 2 degrees Celsius is slipping away. The scientific consensus is that any increase above that level would lead to catastrophic changes in the climate – from extreme droughts and coastal flooding to disruptions in world food supplies – which would have severe economic consequences.
“We need to see emissions peak by 2020, otherwise reaching the 1.5 degree target becomes virtually impossible,” UNEP chief scientist Jacqueline McGlade said in a telephone interview.
Emissions gap
According to McGlade, countries must close an emissions gap of at least 12 gigatons of carbon dioxide, equivalent to the greenhouse gases emitted by all cars on European roads in 12 years. According to the latest figures from the European Association of Automobile Manufacturers, there are approximately 291 million motor vehicles circulating in the 28 members of the European Union.
The world will continue to pump 54 to 56 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year by 2030 according to current plans, well above the 42 gigatons needed to limit warming to 2 degrees, according to the report.
© 2016 Bloomberg
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