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The 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano was triggered by a relatively small and rapid change to the volcano after a decade-long build-up of pressure in the upper parts of the volcano, according to a recent study published in Nature Communications by Earth scientists at the University of Hawaii at Manoa and US Geological Survey.
Using data from the USGS Hawaiian Volcanoes Observatory before and during the 2018 eruption at the summit and flank, the research team reconstructed the geological events. The 2018 eruption was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawaii in 200 years.
“The data suggests that a backup in the hydraulic system of magma at the Pu’u ‘O’o eruption site caused widespread pressurization in the volcano, pushing magma into the lower flank,” said Matthew Patrick, research geologist at the Pu’u’ O’o volcano. USGS HVO and lead author of the study.
The eruption evolved and its impact expanded, as a cascading sequence of events allowed for relatively minor changes in Pu’u ‘O’o to cause major destruction and historical change across the volcano.
A series of cascading events of this type was not considered the most likely outcome in the weeks leading up to the eruption.
“This form of tunnel vision, which pays less attention to less likely outcomes, is a bias that can be overcome by considering the volcano’s broader and longer history,” said Bruce Houghton, the Hawaii state volcanologist, professor of earth science from the University of Hawaii at the Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology and co-author of the study. “For Kilauea, this is about broadening the scope for considering the types of behavior seen in the first half of the 20th century and possibly even earlier.”
“Our study shows that eruption prediction can be inherently challenging in scenarios where volcanoes slowly ignite and ignite due to a small event, as the processes leading to the eruption can be difficult to detect and are easy. to be overlooked on the scale of the entire volcano, “Patrick said.
“It is also a warning against over-reliance on recent activity as a guide for future eruptions.”
The state has absorbed a significant amount of the economic and social cost of the 2018 eruption and will likely do so again as Kilauea and Mauna Loa continue to erupt, Houghton suggested.
Studies like this, which probe the more subtle influences of the behavior of these volcanoes, aim to reduce the costs, human and physical, of upcoming eruptions.
With future work, the research team aims to take several approaches to understanding the subsurface structure and movement of magma in Kilauea’s East Rift Zone.
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