[ad_1]
Russian airstrikes and artillery shells from Bashar al-Assad’s regime forces have become an almost daily sight for villages and towns in Idlib’s southern countryside, especially those located south of the Aleppo-Latakia international highway known as “M4”.
This region is the most important meeting point between Russians and Turks, as the two sides have so far not been able to find a compromise on this.
With each escalation of the bombing, both by the Russians and by Assad’s forces, the attention of civilians in Idlib has turned instantaneously and indirectly to the details of the military operation that will be in the next phase, a scene that the last few months and years have shown, as the Russians, before any ground offensive, tend to intensify. By bombing on the one hand and stepping up infiltration operations on the other, a policy that had demonstrated its presence since the beginning of last month and which continues today.
In addition to speculations related to the imminence of a military operation in Idlib, the reality on the ground leads to the existence of controversial points between Ankara and Moscow, which prevented the completion of the latest “Sochi” agreement, signed in March 2018, in particularly the clause relating to the opening of the “M4” road and the deportation of the factions accused of “Terrorism” by both sides, led by “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham”.
While Moscow accuses Ankara of failing to implement its commitments to the Sochi Agreement, the latter is moving in a different direction and for weeks has withdrawn the observation points located in areas controlled by the Assad regime, which it had deployed in 2017. according to the Astana agreements.
Turkish withdrawal or repositioning? This is a question whose answer has not yet been clear, to which is added the absence of an official position on Ankara explaining the reasons that pushed it to this step, and what its military presence will be in the coming days. .
Double pressure hit
And as monitored by the Al-Hurra website three weeks ago so far, Russian airstrikes and artillery bombardments by Assad’s forces focus on villages in the southern part of the international highway (M4), expanding for days and reaching the vicinity of Idlib, the city that hosts hundreds of people. Thousands of civilians and displaced persons.
Interestingly, in conjunction with the Russian bombing south of the highway, the Turkish army is working to mobilize its reinforcements in the bombed-out area, which means that both Russia and Turkey are stepping up fighting, but the first from the air and the other to the ground, in delicate passages that can lead to a military confrontation in one way or another. , As observers.
Mustafa, a coalition fighter of the National Liberation Front, which is affiliated with the moderate factions in Syria. In the statements to Al-Hurra, Moscow is not expected to take any military action in the southern Idlib campaign, especially in the Jabal Al-Zawiya region, which has become one of the largest barracks where the Turkish army is stationed in Idlib.
The fighter, who works with a group of 13 members and operates on the contact lines, added that “the stadium that is passing through Idlib is different from the previous one, and the Turkish army, despite the withdrawal from the observation points, is massing. heavily on both sides of the highway, the opening of which is considered the province’s last word. ” “.
For his part, Nawar Shaban, a researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, says that any escalation from Russia and Assad’s forces against Idlib can only be included in the “messages” from Moscow, which they want to convey to the Turkish side.
Shaaban believes, in statements to the Al-Hurra website, that “Russian targets will continue in the Idlib countryside, while the Turkish military presence in Jabal Al-Zawiya continues to be strengthened,” noting that Moscow and Ankara have been unable to implement the provisions of “Sochi” on the ground, especially by opening a road “m4”.
And Ankara is not the only one that has not pledged to lead the international path, according to the Istanbul-based researcher, as Moscow is also seen as a blockade to lead the international path, as it has not held back the Assad regime, and stopped the bombing with missiles and artillery shells, which are mainly concentrated on both sides of the highway.
Shaaban explains that the Russians are currently trying to double the pressure “through fiery pressure on Turkey with repeated targets, as well as another (social) pressure linked to the popular incubator, in order to counter it to the Turkish presence, arguing that it cannot repel any military operation on the province. Or even stop the air strikes on it. “
Two requests from Moscow
In the context of the above and in the context of the escalation in Idlib, so far neither Ankara nor Moscow have paid to comment, neither positively nor negatively, while the Russian media has begun to promote a new, but “not extensive” military operation, al order to complete the terms of the Sochi agreement. The latter, surmounted by the opening of the international motorway (M4).
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, agreed on a ceasefire in Idlib in March 2020, after talks lasting more than five hours in the presence of senior officials from the two countries.
The two sides agreed to patrol the M4 road with the establishment of a “safe corridor” six kilometers north and south of the road, and then the joint Russian-Turkish patrols would pass through cities and towns under the control of the opposition, such as Jericho, Jisr Al-Shughour, Mahbel and Orm Al-Jouz.
The 12 kilometers on both sides of the road, according to the agreement, large areas of the opposition-controlled areas were cut along the road between the villages of Tarnaba, west of Saraqib (eastern Idlib countryside), and Ain Al- Hour in the western Idlib countryside, which is the beginning and end of the Turkish-Russian patrol areas, and is Safe Passage. “
The mystery still surrounds the areas of Jabal Al-Zawiya, south of Idlib, because they are located south of the “safe passage”, which leads to severing their contacts with the other opposition areas, thus besieging the Turkish crowds present in they.
The director of the “Bridges Center for Studies”, Muhammad Sarmini, said in statements to Al-Hurra that the question of the area south of the “M4” road is still one of the problematic issues between Moscow and Ankara.
Sarmini continues: “Ankara has not accepted two requests from Moscow: the first is the withdrawal of Turkey from the entire region, and the second is the installation of checkpoints of the Russian military police in the area from Jericho to Jisr al -Shughur. Therefore, the repeated Russian escalation is often aimed at influencing Turkey’s decision regarding the approval of the requests. Previous “.
The Syrian researcher explains that the area of Jabal Al-Zawiya, where the Turkish crowds are concentrated, and with it the Russian bombings, is considered one of the most important areas at the military level, if not the most important, indicating: ” Therefore, preserving it from Turkey means ensuring a strong influence in Idlib, as well as the panorama.On international roads, the peaks of Jabal al-Zawiya overlook the M4 and M5 roads.
In a previous interview with Al-Hurra, the driver of one of the trucks participating in the evacuation of the observation points said that a large number of vehicles and equipment that are being towed are heading towards the Qafeen area, which located in Jabal Al-Zawiya.
The “Qafin” area overlooks the Al-Ghab plain in the western countryside of Hama, is considered a higher area than other areas and is strategically important in the southern countryside of Idlib.
According to the field control map for Idlib, the Turkish army is working on a major military upgrade in the Jabal Al-Zawiya region, especially in the areas south of the M4 highway, which is the area that was present in the last Sochi agreement modified, between Erdogan and Putin, in one month. Last March.
Source link
