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Using an analysis of 2013 as a basis, BitMEX has made its study to explore mining activity since 2009 in search of traces of the Bitcoin creator.
Few people are surrounded by as much mystery as the creator of Bitcoin, whose legacy includes the world's most famous blockchain project and a manifesto that gave rise to an ideology focused on digital money. Satoshi Nakamoto has practically left no clues about himself, but people keep digging incessantly through various data to find some sign indicating his identity or a glimpse of what many suspect to be his huge Bitcoin deposit.
BitMEX is the last entity to start tracing the alleged wealth of Satoshi Nakamoto by observing a previous analysis by Sergio Demian Lerner, who first came with the figure of one million BTC.
Looking at the hypothesis of Lerner
In mid-April 2013, Lerner showed the world his first analysis of the possible movements of Bitcoin's creator in the blockchain until a year after his block of genesis had been extracted . He suggested that Nakamoto may have extracted "almost by himself" during that period due to a constant hash rate of 7Mh / s.
Users in the forum where he posted immediately fired at the hypothesis, stating that the network has hash calculations based on the bootstrap.dat file used for his analysis was not accurate enough to justify such a conclusion.
In a couple of days, Lerner performed a more detailed analysis of the situation and put a figure on the wealth of Nakamoto: about a million BTC.
This time, he took a fingerprint of the mining history of the Bitcoin network between January 3, 2009 and January 25, 2010, demonstrating that a particular miner was working during the period and he also extracted the first block after the genesis block, representing activity as black points on the graph.
"I can not assure with 100% that all blackheads are owned by Satoshi, but almost all are owned by a single entity, and that entity started digging directly from block 1, and with same performance as the genesis block, "he wrote.
This was the first in-depth analysis of what is believed to be the mining activity of Satoshi Nakamoto in the early days of Bitcoin. [19659005] What does BitMEX add?
Although the analysis of BitMEX is largely in line with the 2013 Lerner hypothesis, there are some points where the exchange asks to disagree. The breakdown is in August 2009, where BitMEX loses the confidence that the extranonce model continues to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.
"After August 2009, the model breaks to a certain degree.The slope of the slopes varies considerably … At the same time, the height of the slopes is inconsistent and there are many large spaces between Therefore, even if the picture still seems convincing, our opinion is that the miner is a somewhat weak entity, according to us "BitMEX wrote .
After analyzing nonces per block in every discovery, BitMEX concluded could represent only 740,750 of estimated million Bitcoins. The tests for the other 227,650 BTCs in the original 2013 estimate are considered too weak to easily associate them with the creator.
While BitMEX believes "this is all too much to be a coincidence", he also said that the extranonce analysis is "essentially useless" when it comes to estimating the exact number of coins that the dominant miner has extracted in 2009
"In conclusion, even though there is strong evidence of a dominant miner in 2009, we believe the evidence is much less robust than many assumptions – even if an image is worth a thousand words, sometimes the images can be a bit misleading, even if one is convinced, the evidence only supports the claim that the dominant miner may have generated less than a million Bitcoins in our opinion, perhaps from 600,000 to 700,000 Bitcoins it's a better estimate, "wrote BitMEX.
