Scientists predict volcanic eruptions by looking at decades-old lava crystals

Lava crystals that erupted from volcanoes more than half a century ago may reveal secrets about when they might erupt next time, says a new study.

US scientists analyzed the crystals formed inside a type of porous rock that exploded by the Kīlauea volcano in Hawaii in 1959.

The crystals had a strange shape that, coupled with computer model simulations, can predict future and potentially fatal eruptions, experts say.

Although the crystals were taken from the 1959 Kīlauea eruption, the volcano is still active and destroyed more than 500 surrounding houses when it exploded in 2018.

“I always suspected these crystals were far more interesting and important than we give them credit,” said study author Professor Jenny Suckale, assistant professor at Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences.

“We can actually infer the quantitative attributes of the pre-eruption flow from these crystalline data and learn about the processes that led to the eruption without drilling into the volcano.

“This to me is the Holy Grail in volcanology.”

Scientists trying to understand how and when volcanoes might erupt are hampered by the fact that many of the responsible volcanic processes take place deep underground.

At the time of the eruption, any underground markers that could have offered clues leading to an explosion are often destroyed.

But volcanic crystals can help test computer models of magma flux, which could reveal insights into past eruptions and possibly help predict future ones.

The Stanford team analyzed crystals taken from inside the slag, an igneous rock, which means it formed through the cooling and solidification of magma or lava.

The slag is dark in color and is composed of round bubble-like cavities known as vesicles.

Vesicles form when gases that have been dissolved in liquid magma – known as lava upon reaching the surface – escape during the eruption, creating bubbles as the rock cools and solidifies.

These vesicles may be hollow, but they sometimes contain tiny natural crystals.

The vesicles form so quickly that the crystals inside cannot grow, effectively capturing what happened during the rash.

The researchers studied millimeter-sized crystals made up of a mineral called olivine that were discovered buried after the chaotic 1959 eruption of Kilauea volcano in Hawaii.

Since the slag can be wiped out several hundred feet from the volcano, these samples were relatively easy to collect.

An analysis of the crystals revealed that they were oriented in a “strange but surprisingly consistent” pattern: a wide angle between intertwined crystals.

“Mostly, the crystals line up parallel to each other, like a sandwich,” Professor Suckale told MailOnline.

“These crystals look more like a curtain with an angle of about 80 degrees separating them.

“It’s unusual because it creates a large surface area for the crystalline aggregate and therefore significant hydrodynamic resistance.”

This strange orientation could be due to a wave inside the underground magma that influenced the direction of the crystals in the flow.

Using computer modeling, the researchers simulated this physical process for the first time.

Professor Suckale was originally inspired by Michelle DiBenedetto, a fluid dynamics expert at Stanford, whose work had focused on the transport and behavior of non-spherical microplastic particles in waves.

He recruited DiBenedetto to see if the theory could be applied to the strange orientations of crystals from Kilauea Iki, a pit crater near the main summit caldera of Kilauea volcano.

The simulations provided a baseline for understanding the flow of the Kilauea conduit, the tubular passage through which hot underground magma rises to the earth’s surface.

To remain liquid, the material inside a volcano must be constantly in motion.

The team’s analysis indicates that the strange alignment of the crystals was caused by magma moving in two directions simultaneously, with one flow directly above the other, instead of pouring through the conduit in a steady stream.

Researchers had previously speculated that this could happen, but the lack of direct access to the molten conduit prevented conclusive evidence, according to Professor Suckale.

“This data is important to advance our future research on these dangers because if I can measure the wave, I can limit the magma flow and these crystals allow me to reach that wave,” he said.

Monitoring Kilauea from a danger perspective is an ongoing challenge due to the unpredictable eruptions of the active volcano.

Instead of continuously pouring lava, it has periodic explosions that result in lava flows that endanger residents on the southeast side of the larger island of Hawaii, which is also called Hawaii but nicknamed the Big Island.

An unprecedented eruption of Kīlauea, one of Hawaii’s most active volcanoes, destroyed more than 500 homes in 2018.

Although Kīlauea has been continuously erupting for decades, the eruption in the Puna district entered a new extraordinary phase on May 3, 2018.

The glowing lava was thrown nearly two hundred feet into the air and spewed over 13 square miles across the well-populated east coast of Hawaii’s largest island.

The Hawaiian government has reported high levels of toxic sulfur dioxide in the area, which have affected some of the first responders.

Power lines were reported to have melted from the poles due to the heat, with other reports describing lava flows running through woods and down roads.

Monitoring the disorientation of the crystals during the different phases of future Kilauea eruptions could allow scientists to infer the flow conditions of the conduit over time, the researchers say.

“Nobody knows when the next episode will start or how bad it will be – and it all depends on the details of the dynamics of the conduit,” Suckale said.

The study was published in Science Advances.