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original title:Rebar Source of extended release of the application: original
Recently, armor futures prices have been showing a one-sided upward trend. The 2101 rebar contract climbed to 3854 yuan / ton on Monday, bouncing more than 300 yuan / ton from the bottom. In terms of spots, the price in Hangzhou is 3980 / ton, Guangzhou is 4340 yuan / ton and Tianjin is 3920 yuan / ton.
The final question is full of resilience
From the analysis of macroeconomic indicators, the relevant data shows that cumulative real estate development investment from January to September increased by 5.6% yoy and the yoy growth in September was 12.01%; The cumulative sales area of commercial housing from January to September decreased 1.8% yoy and the September yoy growth was 7.25 yoy. %; From January to September this year, the total area of land purchased increased by 8.4% yoy and in September it increased by 10.08% yoy. In the context of the implementation of the new “three red lines” legislation, the financing of real estate companies is limited and the turnover of corporate capital will depend more on sales returns.
For real estate companies, speeding up construction and sale after land acquisition is a rational choice. Therefore, with the rapid increase in land purchases in September, the subsequent operating rate can be guaranteed with a high probability, which will largely support the demand for rebar.
The supply of armor remains high
Last week, the actual capacity utilization rate of the blast furnace was 83.9%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; Tangshan blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.8%, unchanged from the previous month. Last week, production of molten iron was 2.456 million tons, down 6 million tons from the previous month; rebar production was 3.59 million tonnes, an increase of 10.8% year on year and a decrease of 40,000 tonnes from the previous month.
In terms of the short process, the volume of arrivals has lagged, the high daily consumption and low inventory support the continued rise in scrap prices. Rising electric furnace costs push up the center of gravity of armor futures prices. Electricity costs of East China’s China Electric Furnace Valley have strong support for armor futures prices and flat electricity generation It continues to be on the verge of breaking even. At present, the cost of electricity in east China is 3850 yuan / ton, an increase of 65 yuan / ton over the previous month, the profit of east China electric furnace is 20 yuan / ton, and Gudian’s profit is 170 yuan / ton.
Overall, this year’s rebar production was at a high level in both the off-season and the peak season. However, from mid to late October, as steel mills’ profits continued to decline, the rate of Production growth slowed month to month and supply pressure was eased to some extent.
Inventory goes faster
Rebar stocks are still dwindling this week. Total inventory was 8.9395 million tons, a decrease of 876,500 tons from the previous month. Among them, the social inventory was 6,141,300 tons, with a decrease of 605,900 tons on a monthly basis; the steel mill’s inventory was 2,787,200 tons, a decrease of 270,600 tons on a monthly basis. At the moment, the overall inventory depletion rate is relatively high and inventory pressure has been significantly eased compared to the first half of October. If the inventory can be continued until the end of November, the high inventory pressure will be significantly reduced, which will change the previous “high inventory entering winter storage” to some extent. The expectation is favorable to the relatively high price of rebar.
From the perspective of the weekly high frequency data, the apparent demand for rebar has significantly improved compared to the first half of October. Apparent demand in the past two weeks has remained at around 4.4 million tonnes, indicating that overall demand is good. At present, we expect that with the continued rush of the real estate sector and acceleration of construction in the Xiong’an area, demand is likely to remain at a relatively high level throughout November. At the same time, the overall profit of steel mills is still at a low level and the supply of rebar is difficult to increase significantly. Such a supply and demand structure helps rebar futures prices remain relatively strong. (Author’s Unit: Qianhai Futures)
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