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PROFESSOR Philip Nolan said it was “wrong” to suggest that NPHET dealt with the recommendation to block Level 5 too soon.
The chairman of the NPHET Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group said that level 3 actions taken prior to level 5 have stabilized, but not reduced, the spread of Covid-19.
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Just two weeks after the level 5 restrictions began, Covid-19 rates have fallen across the country.
At RTE Radio 1, Prof. Nolan said: “It is wrong to assume that this is the effect of Level 3 measures.
“It is later and we have a lot of data from Dublin and Donegal and across the country that level 3 measures have stabilized the disease, prevent it from growing, but not reduce it.
“What has happened here is that in the week or ten days before the introduction of level 5, people are willing to cut off their social contacts and know what’s going to happen, as I can imagine.”
Professor Nolan said the effects of Level 5 are now starting to manifest, with a decline eventually being seen in Dublin.
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The professor explained: “Now we are starting to see the additional effects of level 5 on people’s spontaneous behavior, over and over again the real effects of level 3 restrictions. It’s one of the amazing things where we are now.
“Dublin has been on level 3 or tighter restrictions since early September and yet the number of cases in Dublin is higher than it was then.
“They are losing weight now, which is really good news, and it’s not uncommon for an epidemic in a capital to be resilient.
“We are quite clear that there is a direct and obvious correlation between the level of social contact and the behavior of the virus.
“And people do what needs to be done, and that’s the important message.”
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The professor said health officials are trying to keep coronavirus levels as low as possible before the lockdown ends on December 1.
He said his team is looking into the best ways to reopen the country and which Christmas season situations are high and low risk.
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He added that even after level 5 is lifted, the public will have to keep discretionary internal social contacts low.
He said: “What we’re doing now is keeping the virus levels as low as possible for six weeks.
He added: “But after December 1, it is important to make sure that we continue to minimize the transmission of the virus.”
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