Ethereum (ETH) has fallen by 15% since July 15, when a senior US official said he believed ETH was not a security. The cryptographic asset is currently down 65% from its January high. The market capitalization stands at USD 37.96 billion, with USD 1.14 billion traded in the last 24 hours.
The number of transactions per day has continued to increase this month. The average transaction fee, which increased in July, returned to levels seen in June. However, gas prices started to rise again, suggesting another increase in the average volume of transactions at the horizon.
Gas is a unit that measures the amount of computational effort to perform operations. Any transaction that can be performed by a transaction or contract on the Ethereum platform costs a certain amount of gas.
The pending transactions have increased by more than 50,000 this week twice with the increase of "trade mining" activities. Mining is a new and thriving model of commissions on some Chinese trade. The model reimburses 100% of the platform transaction fees through the platform's native token. This has encouraged users to create fictitious transactions in order to collect taxes and thus earn more tokens.
As for the increase in transaction fees come back to the fore, future downsizing solutions remain an urgent problem. Chain scalability solutions such as Proof of Stake (PoS) and Sharding will allow you to validate multiple transactions at the same time. Off-chain scaling solutions include Raiden Network, which uses bidinectional channels similar to Bitcoin and Plasma's Lightning Network, which uses a series of smart contracts to create hierarchical sidechain trees.
The Mobius transaction device, which allows for private transactions with ring signatures and invisible addresses similar to those seen on Monero, has gained increasing public attention, as users are more concerned with privacy. Non-interactive knowledge topic Zero-Knowledge (ZK-SNARKs), a function used by Zcash to enable private transactions, was added to the ETH in October. Vitalik Buterin also commented on his growing concerns about privacy and mass surveillance during the use of cryptocurrency.
The value of the 30-day Kalichkin network for daily chain transactions (NVT) The ratio has been in decline since it recently passed a maximum of two years . The chain activity increased significantly during 2017, during the ICO mania. The inflection points in NVT can be leading indicators for an inversion of the value of an asset. A clear uptrend in NVT suggests that a currency is overvalued based on its usefulness and should be seen as a downward price indicator.
The hash and difficulty rate reached record levels in August, while mining profitability is keeping record lows. The extraction of ETH Proof of Work (PoW) will eventually become completely impossible through the transition of Casper Proof of Stake (PoS). This change also leads to a significant reduction in inflation, to around 500,000 ETHs per year or 0.22 ETH per block. Casper is unlikely to be implemented until 2019-2020. A Community survey, with weighted votes for the balance of the portfolio, unanimously supported a reduction in the issuance at 1 ETH per block until Casper was implemented (EIP 858).
The ETH project on GitHub had a total of 874 commissions in the last year. Most coins use the GitHub developer community, where files are saved in folders called "repository" or "repos" and changes to these files are recorded with "commit". Although commits represent quantity and not necessarily quality, a higher number of commits  According to coinschedule.com, there have been 645 Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) so far in 2018, which collected a total of US $ 17.7 billion. The total for 2017 was only 3.88 billion US dollars, with only 95 million dollars raised in 2016. ICO sales have plummeted since EOS and TaTaTu completed their ICOs in June, having collected a total of US $ 5.575 billion
According to dappradar.com, the main decentralized applications (dApps) of users in the last week continue to be dominated by decentralized exchanges and game app. IDEX had both the highest number of users in the last 24 hours and the highest volume of ETH in the last week. The FOMO3D and Proof of Weak Hands (PoWH) 3D gaming apps, both designed to work as a Ponzi or pyramidal scheme, remain extremely popular.
ETH the volume of trade exchanged in the last 24 hours was mainly driven by Tether (USDT), Bitcoin (BTC) and US Dollar (USD) pairs. Most of the exchanges took place on OKEX, Binance, Huobi and Bitfinex. In Asia, Korean Won (KRW) and Yuan (CNY) pairs hold a slight premium while the Yen (JPY) pair is in line with the average spot price. Together, all three regions show a relatively low interest for their fiat pairs
. Coinbase has recently announced that it has increased daily limits for instant purchases or sold for $ 25,000. The increase in liquidity will probably also increase the volume of retail trade. Coinbase allowed the purchase of credit cards for most of the customers last year, until Chase, Bank of America, Citi and Capital One started blocking these purchases to February.
The over-the-counter (OTC) exchange LocalEthereum facilitated 1,743 ETHs in the transaction volume in the last week, second to next. In comparison, LocalBitcoin traded 7,000 BTCs last week, according to coin.dance. Traditional OTC counters often require a minimum order of between US $ 100,000 and US $ 250,000, while these peer-to-peer markets have no minimum order size
Technical analysis  Trade volumes in all crypto markets have fallen dramatically over the course of the year, but the decline in ETH volume has been among the most dramatic. With the drop in volume, the price was even more uncertain and difficult to predict in infra-day periods of time. When the volume starts to increase, recognizing the formation of a trend will prove to be profitable. Graphic patterns, exponential moving averages (EMA) and Ichimoku Cloud can be used to determine entry points and goals. Further basic information on the technical analysis discussed below is available here.
In the daily chart, the most important area to watch is the activated resistance (yellow box, graph below). A strong bullish rebound is likely to occur if the price is able to maintain this area again. If not, you can target the bearish Cup target and lowered handle of ~ US $ 135. This minimum would correspond to the previous minimum set in July 2017.
Probably the price will find support between US $ 250 and US $ 300 , based on the volume profile on the right of the graph below. The volume profile shows the volume, or the purchase and sale of interest, at all price levels. This area also has the psychological support of round numbers.
Open interest (top box, chart below) remains net on Bitfinex, but short films have grown in recent days. The 50 / 200EMA remain horribly traversed by the last march of March. Currently there is no upward divergence of the RSI, but, under $ 350, there will probably be a divergence with the minimum set in March.
Turning to the Ichimoku cloud, four metrics are used to determine if there is a trend; the current price in relation to the Cloud, the color of the Cloud (red for bearish, green for bullish), the Tenkan (T) and Kijun (K) cross and the Lagging Span. The best voice always occurs when most signals go from bearish to bullish or vice versa.
The status of the current cloud metrics in the daily time frame with single settings (10/30/60/30) for faster signals are bearish; the price is below the Cloud, the Cloud is bearish, the cross TK is down and the Lagging Span is below the Cloud and in the price. A traditional long entry will not trigger until the price is higher than the Cloud. The price fell 20% from the bearish cross TK under the Cloud on July 30th.
The current cloud metric status in the daily time frame with double settings (20/60/120/30) for more precise signals are also bearish; the price is below the Cloud, the Cloud is bearish, the cross TK is down and the Lagging Span is below the Cloud and in the price. Again, a traditional long entry will not trigger until the price will be higher than the Cloud. The price continued to decline without a bearish rebound from Kijun, using these settings, indicating that the daily cloud settings are optimal for current market conditions.
On the ETH / BTC pair, the price was largely limited to different support and diagonal resistance zones. The price is currently poised on the edge of the lower support zone, while the price structure suggests a reversed double inverted graph model with bear and Eve. The model produces an extension of 1.68 fib of 0.0174 which corresponds to the support area of the volume profile.
Scale concerns and lack of commercial or institutional interest in ETH continue to drive lower prices. Based on several random stress tests of different vectors in the last year, the on-chain network showed the inability to adapt adequately. Although ERC20 tokens continue to dominate the ICO model and ETH has a first-hand advantage, competition from other platforms continues to increase. The basic growth surrounding total users, developers and dApp continues to eclipse the current price for many traders.
Without the appearance of a rescue rally with prices pushing for annual lows, technicians quickly came back down. Although the price continues to show signs of oversold, the volume of purchases still has to have a decisive impact on any upward impulse. Bearish targets of US $ 280 or 0.0174BTC are possible in the coming weeks.