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Predictions blockchain and cryptocurrency 2019 – Vol. VII
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We continue our series of forecasts from industry thought leaders about what could happen next year.
With almost every measure, 2018 has been a busy year for the blockchain / cryptocurrency industries. Beyond the usual issues affecting young companies in hiring, marketing, technology and financing, companies have been involved in a crisis of trust with investors, as cryptography markets have lost 80% % of their total value from the beginning of the year.
Add to that the magical source of funding caused by the reduction of initial coin offerings, the increase in government control and the absolute ban on certain activities, and the bitter battles between technology developers that have caused market rotations, and it is surprising that any company has survived such serious winds against it.
But in 2019, the survivors of this industrial winter demonstrate confidence in the underlying technology of the blockchain and in the continuing promise of cryptocurrency. They stress that institutional investors are still on the sidelines and many retail supporters are still not at stake.
Add this to the constant interest of large companies and the spirit of innovation shown by blockchains and crypto-pioneers, and the story seems much brighter than the simple numbers would suggest.
Block Tribune has asked industry thought leaders to consider what might happen next year. Now, until the end of the month, we will highlight their thoughts on what could happen in what every hope will be a happy and prosperous 2019.
Gary Peat, Chief Financial Officer, SIGNiX BLOCK TRIBUNE: where do you see Bitcoin? 2019 and why?
ANSWER: Bitcoin, like any currency, will increase in value if the volume of transactions that facilitates is increasing and the number of Bitcoins remains fixed (as is). The opposite is also true. A minor use of Bitcoin for transactions such as trade (the "true economy") will cause a decrease in the unit value of any currency, including Bitcoin. The use of Bitcoin for trade is very, very low and has even had some recent decline with fewer seats accepting Bitcoin today than a year ago.
In addition, investor accessibility would allow more retail and institutional bitcoin holders, resulting in a cash improvement premium to increase the value of Bitcoin. But this is a source of volatility that increases the value of investor supply / demand, rather than increasing the value on fundamentals. The fundamentals of using Bitcoin for trade as a medium of exchange (which economists call "real economy") are the only reliable way to see a significant long-term appreciation as a currency.
The long-term trend of the slow increase in the use of Bitcoin as a currency for transactions in the real economy is increasing the value of Bitcoin. The rapid acceleration of the speed of investor speculation in 2017 has returned to the long-term trend of increasing trade with Bitcoin as a currency, not as a store of value for retail investors.
BLOCKTRIBUNE: the recent crypto plunges have influenced your perspective and / or your plans 2019?
ANSWER: Yes. We are the perfect "anti-ICO". Most ICOs have very, very few users and their token has dropped 90-99% from ICO. Smartract.io begins with a volume of digitally signed contracts of around 50 million in 2017 from its launch partner SIGNiX, the leading digital signature HQ in North America.
Many of these digitally signed contracts are candidates for becoming smart contracts that operate independently on the blockchain. Even a penetration of 1/100 of 1% produces 500,000 users who will use the SMRT token to create, challenge and manage smart contracts that can last decades. All together, the potential of the digital contract of the existing SIGNiX digital signature platform is around 100 million shares, signing up to 1 billion contracts annually.
BLOCK TRIBUNE: What role will stablecoin have in the market? 2019?
ANSWER: They are trying to present currency stability through the pegging of traditional economies of a currency or investment product at a constant value. Hence, a good currency for trade (real economy). Because Bitcoin is a niche of less than 1% of all legal currencies, and because stable currencies are a small fraction of the value of Bitcoin, it will have an almost nil impact in 2019. It will take years for stable coins to have significant use. So, they are relevant even later 2019 and not much in 2019.
BLOCK TRIBUNE: which sectors – energy, e-commerce, gambling – do you think will have the biggest impact in the blockchain industry in 2019?
ANSWER: Game, e-commerce and law.
BLOCK TRIBUNE: which event would you like to see happen in 2019?
ANSWER: A dApp takes off to show a & k; killer app outside the basic protocol layer like ethereum, Ripple or EOS.
BLOCK TRIBUNE: ICO died as an effective fundraiser? Why or why not?
ANSWER: Yes why? ICOs are returning to the future: now ICOs must have both a symbolic investment opportunity and an opportunity to raise equity. This means that there must be an underlying company that is worth investing in a well-established and successful company like SIGNiX.
Since most ICOs were start-ups, they have no equity to be attractive as an investment. Even the start-ups that ICOs make are lacking in any traditional governance and reporting discipline of companies backed by ventures in general. The startup ICOs have no real responsibility, no real governance system.
Governance is fundamental, including basic concepts such as shareholders electing a board, the board of directors employing management, etc. Not to mention regulations and / or protective provisions to address issues such as "do not hire a $ 300,000 McClaren supercar for the founders for $ 14K / month each" and other similar problems that have arisen in post-ICO companies.
Matt DiPietro, CMO of the Kin Foundation
BLOCK TRIBUNE: Where do you see Bitcoin in 2019 and why?
ANSWER: Bitcoin definitely has a bright future, but I think 2019 will be a year of usefulness. Because Bitcoin is so difficult to use, both as a developer and as a consumer, its use cases are fundamentally limited. In 2019, we will see other tokens fighting for the mantle of the "most used". Bitcoin and Ether, for example, still suffer from a serious lack of use cases in the real world. They work great for speculation, but there is an incredibly small use of the real world. This will change in the next year.
TRIBUNA BLOCK: Have recent cryptographic crashes affected your prospect and / or plans for 2019?
ANSWER: Not at all. I'm really relieved to see any correction in the markets. This type of correction has the tendency to separate the wheat from the chaff; real steam projects. At Kin, we are taking a very long view. We are focused on demonstrating real consumer use cases.
BLOCK TRIBUNE: what role will the stablecoins have on the market in 2019?
ANSWER: Making predictions about the long-term role of stablecoins in industry still seems to read tea leaves. It's a fascinating technology with lots of promises, but like Bitcoin and other traditional cryptocurrencies, there are still a few proven use cases.
BLOCK TRIBUNE: which sectors – energy, e-commerce, gambling – do you think will have the greatest impact in the blockchain sector in 2019?
ANSWER: Consumer app. I think 2019 will be the year of what I call "consumer crypto". What I mean is that we will finally see consumers start using cryptocurrencies selected in a daily way. We are already seeing Kin in use in gaming, social and even health and fitness apps, and we expect these categories to expand even further in 2019.
BLOCK TRIBUNE: which event would you like to happen in 2019?
ANSWER: Peace in the world.
BLOCK TRIBUNE: ICO died as an effective fundraiser? Why or why not?
ANSWER: I do not think he's dead, but I doubt we'll ever see another year like 2017. I think the ICO will evolve in fundamental ways and we'll see companies start using cryptocurrencies in other ways, like offering equity to employees, for example. Companies that have lost the ICO mania of 2017 may start looking for coins that are already in nature. Already, many of the companies we are working with or courting have started the process of an ICO, but have decided to explore a previously launched token, such as Kin.
