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Original title: Pork prices continue to drop, agency predicts October CPI could break “1” after 42 months
Summary
[I prezzi della carne di maiale continuano a scendere e l’agenzia prevede che il CPI di ottobre potrebbe rompere “1” dopo 42 mesi]On the morning of the 10th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October. Many institutions predict that the CPI could fall below “1” in October. Sino-Singapore client Jingwei analyzed and found that if the above forecast is met, CPI will return below 1% after 42 months. (China-Singapore Jingwei)
On the morning of the 10th,National statistical officeIt will be announced in OctoberConsumer price index(CPI). Many institutions predict that CPI could drop below “1” in October. Sino-Singapore JingweicustomerThe final hairdo found that as the above forecast is met, the CPI will return to below 1% after 42 months.
Data source: countrystatisticsBureau
Institutions expect an average increase of 0.8%
In the first three quarters, CPI grew 3.3% compared to the same period last year, and the increase was 0.5% lower than in the first half of the year. Since July, the CPI has continued to decline and returned to “era 1” in September.
Senior, City Department, National Bureau of StatisticsstatisticalDong Lijuan analyzed that, due to the overlapping influence of seasons and holidays, fresh fruit and vegetablespriceAll have risen. Dong Lijuan also pointed out that with the continued recovery of live pig production,Optimize, The stock of pork has risen, pigsupplyThere was a rise and the price went from a 1.2% rise last month to a 1.6% drop.
For the upcoming October CPI data, the data shows that as of November 9, 15 institutions have done soYoYThe average expected increase is 0.8%. Among these, the maximum expected value isSouthwest Securities1.1% given, the minimum isGuosen Securities0.5% given.
CICCFalling pig prices are believed to have drastically reduced the CPI. In October, the pork average of the Ministry of AgricultureWholesale pricesChain reportIt fell off-season and the year-on-year growth rate turned negative.CICCIt was also pointed out that the year-over-year growth rate of the prices of 28 monitored key vegetables was the same as the previous month and the year-over-year growth rate of the prices of 7 monitored key fruits improved from the previous month. The price of basic food was stable – rent, travel, etc.servicePrices can slowly improve. The CPI year-over-year growth rate in October is expected to drop to around 0.5% from 1.7% last month.
Zheshang SecuritiesPredictable high pig pricesBasic effectCPI fell below “1”. Due to the deterministic rebound in the supply of live pigs, the price of pigs will go down and even if the price of food increases slightly, the impact on CPI will be minimal.
Industrial securitiesIt is also believed that the underlying factor can promote a significant decline in CPI from year to year. There was a relatively strong underlying factor in October last year, and at the same time, judging by the high frequency data on pork and other food prices, the October CPI is expected to decline significantly on a yearly.
GalaxyTitlesIt was pointed out that the carryover factor in October was 0.8% and the new price increase factor in October was estimated to lower prices by around 0.04% After rounding, CPI is expected to rise 0.8% on an annual basis. At the same time, considering that some of the new price increase factors are difficult to make an accurate estimate, the fluctuation range is 0.7% -0.9%.
Pork prices continue to decline
Since August, pork prices have continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of pork in October was 42.5 yuan, down 10.3% from the previous month. October Basket Of VegetablesProductThe price index was 122.58, down 2.46 percentage points from the previous month.
Source: Screenshot from the official website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
Haitong SecuritiesPork prices are believed to have dropped significantly since October, vegetable prices have fallen and fruit prices have rebounded. Pig prices may continue to decline as the contradiction between supply and demand eases and the impact of the high base overlaps in the same period last year.October CPI is expected to continue to decline to 0.9% every year.
Regarding the trend of the next pork price, Zhuo Chuang Information said that there is no lack of increase in November, but the increase is limited.
Chen Guanghua, Deputy Director of the Zootechnical and Veterinary Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on 21 OctoberPress conferenceShang said the pork supply situation will improve more and more in the future. Chen Guanghua plans to consider the resumption of live pig production, pork imports,consumptionDue to changes in demand and other factors, during the New Year and Spring Festival next year, the supply of pork will increase by about 30% year-on-year and the price will generally be lower than in the same period of the year. last year and there will be no more substantial price increases.
The CPI could remain low
For future price trends,CITIC securitiesHe said the October CPI reading could be around 0.9% yoy, facing some risk of deflation.
Southwest SecuritiesInfluenced by the tightening of food prices in September, the CPI is believed to have entered the “era 1″ year over year, and the base effect will increase significantly after October, and the CPI may continue in the ” it was 1 “in the year.
CICCHe said the CPI may decline further in November, but the year-over-year growth rate of non-food prices may be relatively stable.cost of serviceThe year-on-year growth rate could improve.
Oriental Golden City also pointed out that CPI inflation may drop again in the fourth quarter.PPI Deflation will continue. Year-over-year increase in pork prices in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to decline, causing the rate of growth of food prices to fall, coupled with a recovery in faster supply of demand, prices. non foodshort termThere is unlikely to be a significant increase and the CPI inflation rate may continue to decline.
(Source: Sino-Singapore Jingwei)
(Responsible publisher: DF372)
Solemnly declares: the purpose of this information is to disseminate more information, and it has nothing to do with this stand.
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