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It was a horrendous year for Bitcoin. He started badly, and he's even worse. The recovery that the Bitcoin bulls hoped would come at some point this year is all but an unrealistic dream at this point, even in the last month, Bitcoin's valuation is almost halved from $ 6400 to about $ 3565 at the time of writing.
Still, some analysts, executives and traders have refused to abandon their bullish forecasts for Bitcoin. Squeezing their optimism to the last straw, they keep the idea that Bitcoin will not only recover, but it will shatter the expectations, exceeding its historical maximum of $ 20,000 and straight "on the moon".
Who are these unstoppable bulls and why are they clinging to these predictions?
Bobby Lee sees Triple in 2021
At first glance, it seems that Bobby Lee has a somewhat realistic approach to Bitcoin price forecasts (at least in the short term). Lee is a board member of the Bitcoin Foundation and co-founder of the BTCC cryptocurrency exchange. On December 7, 2018, Lee tweeted that he believes Bitcoin will "fall" to $ 2,500 in January 2019.
Lee's long-term forecasts may be a little less realistic. He went on to say that the next rally will start towards the end of 2020, bringing it to $ 333,000 in December 2021, followed by a crash of $ 41,000 in January 2023.
If history repeats itself perfectly, then the current bear market #Bitcoin the minimum would touch $ 2,500 next month, in January 2019.
And then the next rally would start towards the end of 2020, the peak in December 2021 to $ 333,000, and then collapsed back down to $ 41,000 in January 2023.
Something like that? 🙂 https://t.co/M8ljIVnt73– Bobby Lee (@bobbyclee) December 7, 2018
Lee's predictions are apparently based primarily on a simple "repetition of history" scheme. He also explained that its rationale is based on its prediction that Bitcoin's market capitalization will eventually outweigh the market capitalization of gold. "Another coincidence: if the next #bitcoin rally (in 2021?) Will actually reach $ 333,000, this will bring the price of Bitcoin to about that of #Oro, to $ 7 trillion each!", He wrote.
From an all-time high of $ 1,200 USD in December 2013, for the next 13 months, #Bitcoin fell more than 87% to a minimum for only $ 150 in January 2015. Fund! #AllHopeLost?
Now, from December 2017, a maximum of $ 20,000, with a decline of 87%, would lead to $ 2,500. So maybe the minimum in January 2019? 🤔
– Bobby Lee (@bobbyclee) December 7, 2018
John McAfee says a $ 1 million valuation by 2020 is a "conservative" estimate
Lee's long-term predictions may seem strange, but he is not the only one with the high hopes of the sky at the top. John McAfee, founder of McAfee's computer security software and eccentric millionaire, told CoinTelegraph that a $ 1 million Bitcoin rating by 2020 is a "conservative" forecast. However, he added a small warning, stating that the "real value" of $ 1 million could be reflected differently in the future due to hyperinflation in the legal markets or other widespread fiscal problems.
Yeah, for sure.
Perhaps McAfee might be a little worried about meeting a little promise made last year.
if not, I'll eat my dick on national television.
– John McAfee (@officialmcafee) 17 July 2017
According to McAfee, its prediction method is "simple": it is simply drawing a correlation between the increasing number of transactions and the increase in the number of users on the Bitcoin network. With these standards, McAfee has explained that the value of the Bitcoin network is "growing enormously".
McAfee was not wrong about the growth in the volume of transactions. Diar recently reported that in Q3 of this year, the number of Bitcoin transactions that occurred on the Bitcoin blockchain reached the record record of Q1 2018 of all hours, equal to about 70,000 transactions. The same report also found that BTC transactions have steadily increased 3-5% month-to-month since March of this year.
So, what about the bear market? McAfee claims that the downward spiral of BTC is only "temporary", the result of "artificial pressures".
Fiat Collapse could bring the price of Bitcoin Up
McAfee added in its CoinTelegraph interview that an increase in the BTC rating could also be caused by what he sees as an inevitable collapse of legal currencies. "You'll see the collapse of the Fiat," he said, threatening.
While at the moment it is not clear whether the fiat systems of the world will collapse at any time in the near future, McAfee could be correct in supposing that a forced collapse would lead to greater use of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
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This is evidenced by countries that have suffered financial crises that have destroyed their national currencies. Take Venezuela, for example – when the Bolivar collapsed and hyperinflation plagued the country's economy, citizens turned to Bitcoin as a way to conserve the value of their savings; Bitcoin mining and other cryptocurrencies provide a source of income for people and families who did not have the funds to buy basic necessities such as food and clean water.
Before Venezuela, a similar phenomenon happened in Zimbabwe. Long before Bitcoin reached $ 10,000 in the rest of the world, the value of BTC on the exchange of Zimbabwe Golix was pushed to $ 14,000 due to the high volume of trade within the country.
Olga Feldmeier, CEO of Smart Valor, spoke about the Bitcoin phenomenon as a secure financial haven in an interview with Finance Magnates conducted at the start of this year. "Bitcoin and decentralized money give the same [privileges] to everyone, "he said." You can always buy one or two Bitcoins and [use it as protection] from inflation in your country of origin ".
However, relying on some sort of "inevitable" financial collapse is not a solid basis on which to base a price forecast.
An ETF could bring BTC Back from the Dead
Other Bitcoin bulls rely on the approval of a Bitcoin ETF (exchange-traded fund) to revitalize BTC.
Indeed, this has been the hope of countless investors throughout 2018. In the days that preceded the SEC decision on the application of the Bitcoin ETF presented by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss and their Gemini Exchange, the price Bitcoin has rallied to nearly $ 10,000, a price it had not reached for months. Unfortunately, the SEC's refusal of the application has made BTC's assessment falter.
More recently, however, a study published by Tom Alford on TotalCrypto.io has predicted a 500% increase in the price of Bitcoin if an application for a Bitcoin ETF was approved. Currently, several applications are under review, including one by VanEck and SolidX and one by CBOE. While the jury is still out (and probably will be for several months), many voices across the financial community believe that at least one of these applications has the credentials to get approval.
BitPay COO Sonny Singh also believes that the appearance of a Bitcoin ETF on the market could send Bitcoin back. Singh told Bloomberg that the price of Bitcoin could reinvent itself in the first two quarters of 2019, resulting in a valuation of $ 15,000 to $ 20,000 for BTC.
New capital on the ramps for institutions could flatten BTC
Some analysts argue that another factor that contributed to the decline of Bitcoin is the lack of investment ramps for large-volume institutions and investors.
"The number one, the ramps for new capital is very difficult," said the merchant of digital goods to Susquehanna Bart Smith. "If you are a global institution, it is still very difficult to buy Bitcoin in a way that you could wish for.A rich individual from the GI The generation is not going to take a high resolution picture of their driving license and send it to a site Web and send money there.
Instead, Smith claims that these types of investors want the security that comes with traditional institutions: "they want to invest with Fidelity, they want to invest with Bank of America."
So, the lack of this kind of roads in Bitcoin has left out many big investors. However, more and more platforms have been designed to specifically serve institutional and high-volume investors. The ICE subsidiary exchange, Bakkt, is one of these; ErisX has also recently launched a trading platform designed for institutional investors.
The problem of the three bodies
Of course, no matter what your opinion about the future of Bitcoin, it is extremely important to remember that the only person who really knows what will happen is called Josiah Stimm, and lives on a tiny and unexplored island in the. Atlantic Ocean, where it is completely unreachable by telephone or other means.
Ok, you got me … that was a lie. There is no such Josiah Stimm. The real answer is that nobody knows.
"These predictions are, for the most part, futility exercises," wrote columnist Barry Ritholtz in a recent article for Bloomberg. Ritholtz also indicated his colleague Nick Maggiulli, who reminded us in a tweet that it is impossible to predict chaotic systems.
Where did all these people go wrong? When they made a Bitcoin price forecast, in the first place.
YOU CAN NOT predict chaotic systems. It is the problem of the three bodies. pic.twitter.com/IeMJQ761Sw
– Nick Maggiulli (@dollarsanddata) 24 November 2018
The Three-Body Problem refers to the problem of taking three different point masses and predicting how they will interact with each other based on Newton's laws of motion and gravitation – it's impossible.
Of course, there are those who do not see Bitcoin as such a chaotic system. Willy Woo, a renowned researcher and cryptocurrency analyst, has developed an algorithm that actually reflects Bobby Lee's predictions of the mirror for the future price of the short-term Bitcoin fall and a longer-term boom.
However, if you like time games, then my NVT report is saying that we are still in the middle of a bear market. NVT is simply the ratio between the volume carried by the blockchain and the historical price. (This indicator is due for recalibration after the launch of Liquid Sidechain) pic.twitter.com/hcnI50QAnd
– Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 26, 2018
The fact is, however, that we can not predict the future based only on the past. Of course, there are some data points that we can trace and analyze various types of schemes. But the economy shrinks, grows and changes every day with unprecedented input and loss. We can not reliably predict the future of Bitcoin because we can not reliably predict the future of anything.
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