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The degree of intentionality behind ancient ocean migrations, such as that to the Ryukyu Islands between Taiwan and mainland Japan, has been widely debated. The researchers used satellite-tracked buoys to simulate ancient rebel wanderers and found that the vast majority failed to make the disputed crossing. They concluded that the Paleolithic people 35,000-30,000 years ago must therefore have made the journey not by chance but by choice.
Human migration over the past 50,000 years is an essential part of human history. One aspect of this story that fascinates many is the way the ancients must have traversed separate land masses. Professor Yosuke Kaifu of the University of Tokyo University Museum and his team explore this topic, in particular a crossing known to have taken place 35,000-30,000 years ago from Taiwan to the Ryukyu Islands, including Okinawa, in southwest Japan.
“There have been many studies of Paleolithic migrations to Australia and neighboring continental masses, often debating whether these journeys were accidental or intentional,” Kaifu said. “Our study specifically examines migration to the Ryukyu Islands, because it is not only historically significant, but also very difficult to get there. The destination can be seen from the top of a coastal mountain in Taiwan, but not from the coast. In addition, it is located on the opposite side of the Kuroshio, one of the strongest currents in the world. If they deliberately crossed this sea, it must have been a bold act of exploration. “
This problem of the intentionality of this trip is less simple to solve than you might imagine. To investigate the likelihood of the trip happening by chance, it is necessary to measure the effect of the Kuroshio on drifting boats. To do this, Kaifu and his team used 138 satellite-tracked buoys to chart the path of an aspiring wanderer captured on this journey.
“The results were clearer than I would have expected,” Kaifu said. “Only four of the buoys came within 20 kilometers of any of the Ryukyu Islands, and all of these were due to adverse weather conditions. If you had been an ancient sailor, it is very unlikely you would have embarked on any kind of voyage with such a storm on the horizon. What this tells us is that the Kuroshio directs wanderers away from the Ryukyu Islands, rather than towards, in other words, that region must have been actively navigated. “
You may be wondering how we can be so sure that the current itself is the same now as it was over 30,000 years ago. But existing evidence, including geological records, tells researchers that currents in the region have been stable for at least the past 100,000 years. As for the researchers’ confidence that Paleolithic travelers would not dare to face stormy conditions that might otherwise explain random migrations, previous research suggests these travelers were groups that included families, whose modern analogues take no such risks.
“At first I had no idea how to demonstrate the intentionality of sea crossings, but I was lucky enough to meet my co-authors in Taiwan, the main Kuroshio authorities, and came across the idea of using tracking buoys. “Kaifu said. “Now, our results suggest that the drift hypothesis for Paleolithic migration in this region is nearly impossible. I believe we were able to strongly argue that the ancient populations in question were not passengers of chance, but explorers.”
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