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London – The Middle East and North Africa find themselves after years of turbulence and instability on the threshold of a more delicate phase, in the wake of the recent Arab normalization agreements with Israel, which will lead to the birth of new regional hubs that analysts predict will last for a long time.
In light of the United States continuing to implement its strategy of military withdrawal from the region, particularly Iraq and northern Syria – if it hasn’t changed, of course, with the new US President Joe Biden – the Arab countries have faced with new geostrategic equations that made them choose a peace solution with Israel.
The objectives and actions of some countries in the region focus primarily on deterring threats from distant and direct countries, led by Iran and Turkey, and non-state actors, such as Lebanese Hezbollah and extremist groups. Furthermore, Israel aims to preserve its old alliances by establishing new alliances. With the Gulf states.
A different era
The recent normalization of relations between the UAE, Bahrain and Israel is arguably the most important event that has occurred in the Middle East this year and a strong indication that the Middle East is entering a different era of regional politics.
However, for one reason or another, the signing of the “Abraham Accords” was not the seismic event as it should have been, and political analyst Michael Stephens, an associate member at a Russian Center for Intellectual Studies , attributed it in a research paper published by consulting firm Arab Dagest, in part to The Corona Pandemic and the US presidential election have both dominated the headlines in recent months.
More importantly, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not simply as central to regional and global security as it was in past years.
Stevens, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, believes that the outbreak of the so-called “Arab Spring” in 2011 and the entry of Syria, Yemen and Libya into civil wars, led to millions of Arabs, most of them young, to fight for justice and rights in their countries.
Here, the issue was mixed to the point of making it complex, while many young Arabs held peaceful demonstrations to put pressure on the new governments that formed after the overthrow of some regimes to meet their demands, the wave of young people appeared. who joined extremist organizations such as Isis, Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham and others.
All of these problems are compounded by states across the region that have taken advantage of the state’s fragility to pursue their own agendas, often at the direct expense of regional rivals.
Turkey, Iran, Qatar and Israel have been particularly active in this matter, as each of these countries has sponsored armed agents and carried out military operations outside their borders, in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya. .
These countries also used their media to pursue completely opposite agendas for what both the UAE and Saudi Arabia were working on, as they faced the tide of political Islam and armed militias spreading in Yemen and Libya.
This has resulted in divisions across the region, leading to the violation of any alleged rule of consensus, be it Arab or Islamic.
Stevens believes this break in unity was apparently central to making room for both the UAE and Bahrain to openly increase ties with Israel without fear of retaliation from other Arab countries.
Indeed, instead of facing intense contempt from “fraternal” Arab countries, not much effort has been made to reverse this process, especially after the Arab League voted against a proposal condemning normalization. Ten years ago, a ‘ such an idea was unimaginable. .
Against the backdrop of global power shifts in which the US has begun to withdraw from its dominant position in the Middle East, political analyst Stevens believes that normalizing relations between some Arab countries and Israel should be seen as part of the rebalancing of power. in the area.
Previous models of political and military organization, such as the countries of the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council, ceased to function, a fact that became evident during the darkest days of the Syrian war and at the height of the “Arab Spring” in 2011, which is now dying.
As protests and conflicts engulfed the region, many countries made their own calculations on how best to protect themselves from local instability, conflict and wider regional tensions.
Countries began to pursue narrow agendas, often in contradiction with neighboring states that were allies, leading to diplomatic rifts and triggering chaotic competition, especially between the Gulf states.
New axes emerge
Competition between many of the Arab region’s major players, all of whom have competing programs, has made it impossible to understand the regional order.
However, with the onset of US spending cuts, which left power gaps across the region, a new pattern has begun to take shape to the extent that it is now possible for three broad alliances to emerge in the Middle East, which they are the axis of resistance, the anti-axis forces and the axis of friendly agreement.
Stevens believes this is the new deal for Middle East relations and conflicts, and it will likely continue as such for years to come.
The axis of resistance guides Iran and includes elements in the Iraqi state and Syria and elements loyal to Iran in Lebanon, such as Hezbollah and the Amal movement.
These actors can be defined by their hostility towards Israel and their deep mistrust of the West, as Western allies are seen as responsible for the colonial powers that must be resisted and most of the actors in this group are linked to the ‘Shiite Islam.
The Abraham Accords indicate that new alliances are forming rapidly as Washington continues its withdrawal from the Middle East
As for the anti-Axis forces, they include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, and the three countries maintain strong ties with the West and its defense institutions. It is fiercely hostile to Iran and its allies and sees them as a cause of instability and discord.
These countries also carry a deep hatred for the movements of political Islam active throughout the region, seeing both Turkey and Qatar as rioters and not sufficiently opposed to Iran, and aspiring to overthrow the existing order.
Turkey and Qatar are at the center of the friendly agreement with allies such as the Libyan government of national agreement and Hamas in Gaza. These forces maintain close ties to Western capitals, regularly use Western defense equipment, and have a tolerant, albeit more Palestinian-friendly, attitude towards Israel.
However, this alliance maintains a pragmatic, albeit unconvinced, relationship with Iran, and has become fiercely opposed to the anti-Axis powers, and has thwarted their goals across the region through military and financial means by supporting sympathetic actors. for political Islam.
Stevens says that the emergence of these three alliances is the dream of the neorealists and, in the face of the decline of regional hegemony in the region, the competition has begun, with smaller regional players allying with larger and more powerful players to create balance of power.
Neorealists might argue that the formation of these power structures will lead to a form of stability where the three axes cancel each other out, but the possibility of any of these three axes going to war with each other is entirely unlikely, especially since each axis has strengths that the two axes lack. The other two.
The Axis of Resistance managed to effectively penetrate the internal politics of weak states, so that its influence could not be removed. The anti-Axis powers have access to the highest military technology and abundant financial resources, all supported by nuclear deterrence techniques.
Meanwhile, the friendly Al Wefaq coalition wields the immense weight and power of a large NATO military force, backed by Qatar’s immense wealth and financial resources.
The three axes will compete fiercely in the weakest countries whose leaders cannot resist the temptation of arms and finance. It will certainly aggravate the instability and ensure continued tension in the region for many years to come, but it will most likely ensure that no further escalation occurs.
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