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With the continuing low birth rate, the number of births until September of this year has reached an all-time low. The cumulative number of marriages has also been the lowest since the statistics were written, as the number of marriages was delayed due to the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19).
The natural decrease in the number of deaths, which exceeds the number of births, also continued for 11 months, confirming a natural decline in the annual population. The number of births is at an all-time low for 54 months starting the same month and the number of births per year is expected to be less than 300,000.
According to the ‘Population Trends’ released on the 25th by the National Institute of Statistics, the number of births in September was 23,566, down by 2.2% (-524) compared to the previous year (24,090). Since the number of births is affected by the season, etc., they are usually compared between the same months.
The number of births has decreased compared to the same period last year for 58 months since December 2015. Furthermore, since April 2016, it has reached an all-time low for 54 months starting from the same month. The crude birth rate, which means the number of births per 1,000 people, was 5.6, down 0.1 from the previous year.
The number of births in the third quarter of this year was 69105, down 6.2% (-4578) from a year ago, showing a decline for 19 consecutive quarters. This is the first time that the number of births has fallen below 70,000 in the third quarter. The cumulative number of births from January to September this year was 21.1768, down 8.8% from the previous year (23.108). As a result, there is a high possibility that the number of births per year will drop below 300,000 this year.
The number of births per year remained in the range of 400,000 from 2002 to 2016, but dropped to 300,000 in 2017 (35,7771). After 4 years of descending to the 300,000 level, entry to the 200,000 level is approaching. The demographic precipice is accelerating.
The total fertility rate, which is the number of children expected to give birth to a woman in life, was 0.84 in the third trimester, down 0.05 from a year ago. It is an all-time low in the third quarter since the relevant statistics were prepared in 2009. As the total fertility rate declined from the previous year, it is highly likely to remain below one for three consecutive years. The total fertility rate in Korea was below 1 in 2018 (0.98) and 2019 (0.92).
“Marriage has been declining since 2012, and the population of women in their 30s, which is the main childbearing age group, is also declining, and the number of children born this year is increasing, influencing the decline in the number of births “. Because it is smaller, there is a high possibility that the number of births per year will be less than 300,000. “
The number of deaths in September was 24,361, an increase of 3.4% (791) over the previous year (23,570). The death rate, which means the number of deaths per 1,000 people, is 5.8. The natural increase in the number of babies born in September minus the death toll was -795. As the natural decline continues for 11 consecutive months, the first annual natural decline is expected to occur this year.
In the third quarter the number of deaths was 73,608, an increase of 4.4% (3,115) compared to the previous year (74.93). As the aging population has increased, the number of deaths has been high since the statistics were compiled in 1981 on a quarterly basis. The cumulative death toll from January to September was 226,099, an increase of 4.0% over the previous year (21,7407).
The number of marriages in September was 15,324, down 3.0% (-474) compared to the previous year. The number of marriages in the third quarter was 44,437, an all-time low of 11.0% (-5875) over the previous year. The number of marriages from January to September (156724) was also the lowest since the statistics were written.
Manager Kim explained: “With the decline in the marriage age population, the total number of marriages has decreased.”
Reporter Kim Seong-gil
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