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The asteroid Apophis will need to be closely monitored by astronomers in the coming years, as its orbit has been altered over time, potentially increasing the risk of a collision with Earth. The warning was given in a new study, released in October.
According to University of Hawaii astronomer David Tholen, lead author of the research, space rock is receding from its previously predicted orbit of about 170 meters each year. The change in trajectory was caused by the Yarkovsky effect, a type of acceleration generated by the sun’s rays, which can give a “little push” in the celestial body.
This solar pulse in Apophis was not taken into account in previous calculations, which showed a low risk of collision between the asteroid and Earth in 2068 – a probability of 1 in 150,000. But with this new discovery, the possibilities may change: “The 2068 impact scenario is still in play,” Tholen said.
For him, astronomers should be even more attentive to the celestial body from now on, as the acceleration appears to be particularly strong. “We have to monitor this asteroid very carefully,” said the expert, who was part of the team responsible for the discovery of Apophis in 2004.
Possibility of observation in 2029
A good opportunity to take a close look at this space rock will come at the end of this decade, when Apophis approaches Earth, reaching a safe distance and without risk of collision. It will be so close to the planet that it can be seen with the naked eye.
According to Tholen, the closest approach is scheduled for Friday, April 13, 2029. He believes equipment such as the Arecibo radio telescope will offer a very detailed view of the surface and shape of the Apophis, helping to predict possible future impact scenarios.
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