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Original title: Lange report: Multiple varieties of new high-speed steel markets go crazy
In mid-November, fresh rain and large-scale snow hit the country, but the recent steel market is extremely hot. today,RebarSpot and futures prices both hit new highs during the year. Why has the steel market come out of the peak season of “nine gold and ten silver” demand, have steel prices not only not fallen, but continued to rise? With the high steel prices, is there still a chance for this winter storage?
According to Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform monitoring data, on November 17, the price of grade 3 (Φ25mm) rebar in the ten major domestic cities was 4,080 yuan / ton, an increase of 318 yuan / ton. compared with the same period last month, an increase of 8.45% Compared with the lowest point of the year, increased by 579 yuan / ton, an increase of 16.54; compared with the same period last year, it increased by 98 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.46%. The recent increase in Tangshan steel billets is also very large. Today it also reached the high point of the year at 3580 yuan / ton, an increase of 180 yuan / ton over the same period last month, an increase of 5.29%; and an increase of 580 yuan / ton from the lowest point of the year, up 19.33%. . Also, the prices of coils, hot rolled steel strips, galvanized sheets, etc. They hit new highs this year.
The price of armor futures also increased significantly: today it crossed the 3,900 yuan mark and rose by over 300 yuan / ton in just one month. On November 17, the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s main armor futures contract fluctuated, closing at 3919 yuan / ton, an increase of 83 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.16%; an increase of 308 yuan / ton over the same period last month, an increase of 8.53%; compared to last year Over the same period, it was 363 yuan / ton higher, an increase of 10.21%.
The main reason for the increase in steel prices is demand. Affected by the rush to work in the fall and winter, demand for steel has recently seen a significant increase. Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that from January to October, national investment in fixed assets increased by 1.8% year-on-year and the growth rate was 1 percentage point higher than that. from January to September. Among them, infrastructure investments increased by 0.7% year-on-year and the growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points from January to September. Investments in the manufacturing sector fell by 5.3% and the rate of decline shrank by 1.2 percentage points. From January to October, investment in real estate development increased 6.3% year on year and the growth rate was 0.7 percentage points higher than that from January to September. A series of data relating to the steel industry maintained growth, which indirectly reflects the recent increase in demand for steel.
Lange Steel Network analyst Ma Guanghui said yesterday’s heavy domestic economic data was released and the overall data was better than expected. Furthermore, the central bank continued to outperform MLF for four consecutive months to release liquidity, thus forming strong support for the market.
There has also been a significant decline in inventories recently. According to monitoring data from the Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform, the social inventory of 23 key cities was 10.259 million tons as of November 13, down 743,000 tons from last week, up 6.75%, with an increase of 1.24 percentage points from last week; And there was a “five consecutive decline”, with a cumulative decline of 3.498 million tons, a decline of 25.43%.
At the same time, according to data from the National Statistics Bureau, China’s average daily crude steel production in October 2020 was 2.974 million tons, and the average daily steel production in October was 3.822 million tons. . For four consecutive months, the record of an average daily crude steel production of more than 3 million tons was exceeded and production decreased significantly. Subsequent declines in inventories and production have played a role in alleviating the market supply and demand environment, thus leading to the recovery of market confidence.
So, is there any chance of a big increase in the following period? Ge Xin, Deputy Director of the Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, said steel mill inventories dropped significantly in the first half of November and that production and company inventories also decreased, relieving pressure on market supply and demand. . At the same time, the current cost support is still relatively large. However, the demand for building materials is going to decrease seasonally and the pressure on the supply-demand ratio will increase in the following period. Therefore, steel prices are unlikely to rise and fall sharply in the short term. Ge Xin believes that, based on the current situation, it will be difficult to book this winter.
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