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If intelligent aliens visited Earth, it would be one of the deepest events in human history.
Polls show that nearly half of Americans believe aliens have visited Earth, both in the ancient past and recently. That percentage has increased. Belief in alien visits is greater than the belief that Bigfoot is a real creature, but less than the belief that places may be haunted by spirits.
Scientists reject these beliefs as they do not represent real physical phenomena. They do not deny the existence of intelligent aliens. But they set a high level for proof that we were visited by creatures from another star system. As Carl Sagan said, “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence”.
I am an astronomy professor who has written extensively on the search for life in the universe. I also teach a free online course in astrobiology. Full disclosure: I have not personally seen a UFO.
Unidentified flying objects
UFO means unidentified flying object. Nothing more, nothing less.
There is a long history of UFO sightings. Air Force studies on UFOs have been ongoing since the 1940s. In the United States, “ground zero” for UFOs occurred in 1947 in Roswell, New Mexico. The fact that the Roswell incident was soon explained as the emergency landing of a high-altitude military balloon did not stop a flood of new sightings. Most UFOs appear to people in the United States. It is curious that Asia and Africa have so few sightings despite their large populations, and even more surprising that sightings stop at the Canadian and Mexican borders.
Most UFOs have trivial explanations. More than half can be attributed to meteors, fireballs and the planet Venus. Such bright objects are familiar to astronomers but are often not recognized by members of the public. Reports of UFO visits inexplicably peaked about six years ago.
Many people who say they have seen UFOs are dog walkers or smokers. Why? Because I’m out more. Sightings are concentrated in the evening hours, especially on Fridays, when many people relax with one or more drinks.
Some people, like former NASA employee James Oberg, have the fortitude to track down and find conventional explanations for decades of UFO sightings. Most astronomers believe the hypothesis of alien visits is implausible, so they focus their energies on the exciting scientific search for life beyond Earth.
We are alone?
As UFOs continue to swirl in popular culture, scientists are trying to answer the big question that is raised by UFOs: Are we alone?
Astronomers have discovered over 4,000 exoplanets or planets orbiting other stars, a number that doubles every two years. Some of these exoplanets are considered habitable, as they are close to Earth’s mass and just the right distance from their stars to have water on their surface. The closest of these habitable planets is less than 20 light years away, in our cosmic “backyard”. Extrapolating from these results leads to a projection of 300 million habitable worlds in our galaxy. Each of these Earth-like planets is a potential biological experiment and it has been billions of years since they formed for life to develop and intelligence and technology to emerge.
Astronomers are very confident that there is life beyond the Earth. As astronomer and exoplanet hunter Geoff Marcy puts it, “The universe is apparently full of ingredients of biology.” There are many steps in the progression from Earth with proper conditions for life to intelligent aliens jumping from star to star. Astronomers use the Drake equation to estimate the number of technological alien civilizations in our galaxy. There are many uncertainties in the Drake equation, but interpreting it in light of recent exoplanet discoveries makes it very unlikely that we are the only, or the first, advanced civilization.
This trust has fueled an active pursuit of intelligent life, which has so far been unsuccessful. So the researchers rephrased the question “Are we alone?” to “Where am I?”
The absence of evidence for intelligent aliens is called the Fermi paradox. Even though intelligent aliens exist, there are a number of reasons why we may not have found them and they may not have found us. Scientists don’t ignore the idea of aliens. But they are not convinced by the evidence to date because they are not reliable or because there are so many other more mundane explanations.
Modern myth and religion
UFOs are part of the landscape of conspiracy theories, including reports of abductions by aliens and crop circles created by aliens. I remain skeptical that intelligent beings with far superior technology would travel trillions of miles just to squeeze our grain.
It is useful to consider UFOs as a cultural phenomenon. Diana Pasulka, a professor at the University of North Carolina, notes that myths and religions are both means of dealing with unimaginable experiences. In my opinion, UFOs have become something of a new American religion.
[Deep knowledge, daily. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter.]So no, I don’t think believing in UFOs is insane, because some flying objects are not identified and the existence of intelligent aliens is scientifically plausible.
But a study of young adults found that UFO belief is associated with schizotypical personalities, a tendency to social anxiety, paranoid ideas, and transient psychosis. If you believe in UFOs, you might be looking at what other unconventional beliefs you have.
I don’t subscribe to the UFO “religion”, so call me an agnostic. I remember the aphorism popularized by Carl Sagan, “It’s worth keeping an open mind, but not so open your brain falls.”
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