If Bitcoin's ETF does not take place by February, how will it affect the market?

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The crypto-bear market shows little signs of subsidence. On Tuesday, a new wave of sales incorporated bitcoins and altcoins, dragging the market to new annual lows and pushing Tether (USDT) into the top-five by market capitalization. In this context, it is easy to forget that cryptocurrencies like bitcoin have become so resistant to death that no amount of fear, uncertainty and doubt can bypass the current phenomenon.

Market update

On Tuesday, the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies reached a minimum of $ 107.3 billion, while bearish forces continued to push prices down. Last week, the market reached $ 103 billion, marking a new 15-month minimum. The way prices are going today, the new lows are probably in the short run.

The losses between the majors ranged from 2% to 8%, with the bitcoins reaching the lower end of $ 3,300. The leading digital currency is rapidly approaching a critical $ 2.00- $ 3,200 support test after a series of lower lows and lower lows.

The widespread selloff allowed Tether to claim its stablecoin status. The USDT was rated for the last time at $ 1.01, where it was trading slightly higher than its dollar would suggest. Tether is now a $ 1.9 billion market, ahead of bitcoin, EOS and Litecoin liquidity.

Life expectancy in Bitcoin

The capitalization of the cryptographic market is by no means a perfect measure of general health, but provides a fairly accurate snapshot of where digital trends are trending. The extent to which bitcoin dominates the overall market capitalization is also indicative. As of Tuesday, the largest digital currency accounted for 55% of the total market and increased steadily during the last correction.

Bitcoin continues to exert a strong gravitational pull on the rest of the market, which analysts believe is a reflection of the nascent state of digital currencies as a whole. During the peak of the rise in January, the bitcoin share in the total market fell to around 32%. This broad "decoupling" of bitcoins and other virtual currencies was considered a sign of market maturity. Eleven months later, the "market maturing" discourse has almost disappeared, as investors continue to assess the extent to which prices will fall.

Traditional media and financiers have framed the recent price collapse as the biggest cryptic crisis in existence. For them, there is no sign of a fund until prices reach zero.

This could be the case with a myriad of over 2,000 cryptocurrencies in circulation, but it does not represent the fate of projects that have developed real products. In the case of bitcoin, the historical precedent suggests that a fall to zero simply is not in the cards. Bitcoin has collapsed longer and harder in the past, only to re-emerge stronger and more resilient than ever before. His chance of survival continues to grow every time he overcomes attacks, hard forks and FUDs. This feeds directly on the Lindy effect, which states that the residual life expectancy of any system grows for each additional survival period.

Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies are a monetary phenomenon that has generated waves of adoption in the most important circles: banks, companies, providers of global payments. And even if people have tried to analyze "bitcoin" from "blockchain", the value of cryptocurrency technology has made this distinction more difficult to analyze in a practical sense (as the CEO of Lighting Labs said, we are entering a "bitcoin" , not blockchain "world).

In the last ten years, bitcoin has had almost zero financial losses on the chain itself, making it the most reliable financial network in the world. Bitcoin is so decentralized, in fact, that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially declared that it can not be considered a security. As investors will soon discover, autonomous networks that are sufficiently decentralized and lacking central authority are hard to kill.

This is by no means a "prediction" of where things go from here. Clearly, cryptography lies in a deep bear market that will produce further pain and destruction for a large chunk of existing blockchains. But do not let anyone fool you into believing that this spell is the end of the bitcoin. It's only the beginning.

We leave you with the following quote from Nassim Nicholas Taleb to consider:

"… Bitcoin is an excellent idea: it satisfies the needs of the complex system, not because it is a cryptocurrency, but precisely because it has no owner, no authority that can decide on its destiny. of its users, and now has a history of several years, enough to be an animal in its own right. "

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. It holds investment positions in the currencies, but does not carry out trading activities in the short term or daily.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

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