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Original title: Huatai Futures Macro Category Daily 20201204: Consistent Expectation of Trading Congestion, Beware of Short-Term Adjustment Risks
Macro categories:
On Thursday, the new round of the US fiscal stimulus package shed some light: Democrats called on the Republican Party to resume negotiations on a new $ 908 billion fiscal stimulus package as soon as possible. OPEC has finally reached an agreement to gradually ease production capacity, stating that the monthly adjustment should not exceed 500,000 barrels per day. The tense negotiations of the past few days have highlighted the differences between the core members of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and overall there is still a slight impact on crude oil prices. In the short term, the risk of market adjustment has increased and the recent recovery logic is relatively congested.iron oreFor example, the price of stone has risen to a high level over the past 7 years, but current fundamental expectations have not yet begun to materialize, which is not enough to support the “mad bull” market for commodities and sectors. cyclical, profit-taking and profit-taking operations and recent government increases in real estate regulation AND the oil price adjustment predicted by OPEC’s production increase could lead to a general adjustment, and we can focus on allocation opportunities of safe haven assets such as gold. However, he is still relatively optimistic in the long term. It is expected that in the first quarter of next year, with the gradual promotion of the vaccine, consumption by consumers and companies will usher in a further rebound. At that point, improving demand will drive stronger commodity, especially industrial products. The core lies in the pace of vaccine promotion. The enactment of China’s epidemic bailout, fiscal stimulus and 14th five-year plan will gradually release benefits and the global economy will usher in a phase of resounding upward movement.
Strategy (ranking of strengths and weaknesses): pay attention to short-term adjustment risks and focus on safe-haven assets;
Risk points: geopolitical risks; the launch of the second round of the US outbreak relief program will benefit the US dollar and US assets in the short term; the US city is closed.
Huatai Futures Macro-Class Daily News 20201204: Constant anticipation of trade congestion Beware of short-term adjustment risks
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