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This isn’t the first time the world has worried about the possibility of an old space station falling out of orbit.
I remember becoming aware of the possibility in 1997 thanks to the first season of South Park. Kenny McCormick, the unfortunate in hoodie who met his death at least once in every episode, was tragically crushed by the Russian space station Myself waiting for the school bus.
That was the problem Myself was allowed to operate well beyond its five-year expected lifespan, eventually in orbit for 15 years before burning over the Pacific Ocean in 2001. Eventually, Myself he had suffered a fire, a collision with a cargo ship, leaking refrigerant pipes, a loss of power from broken solar panels, and continual computer crashes. No wonder people looked anxiously upwards whenever space stations were mentioned.
Today, space agency officials and lawmakers are having a similar discussion on the International Space Station (ISS). Although its modules were originally designed to run for 15 years, the ISS is expected to run until its 30th anniversary in 2028 and possibly beyond.
Bill Gerstenmaier, former NASA associate administrator for human exploration and operations, told a Senate subcommittee on space, science and competitiveness in 2018: “We have a good operational life at least until 2028, and perhaps a little beyond. . We just have to keep looking at the station; keep maintaining it. What we don’t want to happen is where we spend more time doing maintenance than doing research. At that point, the station’s usefulness begins to diminish. “
Considering the expenses
Safety and operational durability aside, the ISS was incredibly expensive to develop, build and maintain. With an estimated total cost of $ 150 billion and annual operating costs of $ 3.5 billion, commentators, including Buzz Aldrin, are calling for the ISS to be withdrawn to free up funds for humanity’s push to Mars and to make way to a new generation of low-earth orbit (LEO) commercial players.
To be fair, the ISS is not a white elephant. Significant discoveries have been made in its labs in terms of advancing space exploration and Earth-based scientific advancement, but there is little chance the ISS will pay for itself in this regard.
Confirmed in 2018, the Leading Human Spaceflight Act will fund the ISS “as long as it is safe and functional” at least until September 2030 or “until a proven and sustainable low-cost alternative can achieve NASA’s mission goals.”
These goals are to conduct scientific and exploratory research, benefit life on Earth, and increase US economic competitiveness and trade participation. The law clarifies that commercial activities in low Earth orbit are encouraged and sets out a number of specific steps for NASA to work with the private sector to develop commercial capabilities in LEO. Russia has similar plans to extend the life of the ISS.
Later platforms
It seems almost certain that any successor to the ISS will be a trading platform. The idea that the ISS itself could be privatized and taken over by a private entity, or a series of entities, seems unlikely, as there has been little commercial interest in the space station over the past 20 years. But it is opening the way for the private sector to build, launch and operate LEO-based platforms for profit.
Potential players include Axiom Space, which is partnering with NASA to provide three new modules – housing, research, and manufacturing – to the ISS. These will detach and orbit independently when the ISS is withdrawn. Bigelow Aerospace has designed plug-in inflatable modules to attach to the ISS and, like Axiom’s proposal, will one day become free-flying space stations themselves.
How will the ISS be withdrawn?
Eventually, in 2028, 2030 or possibly even later, the ISS will be disorbed. This involves pushing or pulling the space station out of orbit and into the Earth’s atmosphere, where most of it will burn on reentry. Preventing the creation of even more space junk is a growing priority in end-of-life planning for spacecraft.
The withdrawal of the ISS will likely mark the end of large state-owned platforms in space – at least for the United States – as space stations follow the broader trend in space exploration from government to commercial activity. However, the political and security view of this decision could change with the launch in 2021 of China’s large modular space station.
Image Credit: Vadim Sadovski / Shutterstock.com
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