How long can the new big and tall blue chip market last since the SSE 50 was established in March 2008? _Sina Finance_Sina.com

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Shanghai strong and deeply weak! How long can the new big and tall blue chip market last since the SSE 50 was established in March 2008?

Source: The Voice of Securities Daily

Original daily titles

Text | Wu Shan Chu Lijun

For the past four months, the Shanghai Stock Exchange index has been trading in a floating box and during this time it has risen and retreated many times. However, the retracement maximum is gradually increasing. Market participants also generally recognized the slow uptrend in A shares and the structural market continued.

This week, the Shanghai index returned to 3,400 points on Monday and entered a shock adjustment. During the period it dropped below 3,400 points. Today, the Shanghai index once again stood at 3,400 points, establishing the largest gain on a day this week at 1.14%. In addition, the Shenzhen Components Index increased 0.67% to 13,690.88 points and the ChiNext Index increased 0.37% to 2618.99 points. The total transaction value of the two cities was 725.728 billion yuan, little change from the previous trading day. It is worth mentioning that,SSE 50 indexIt was up 1.54% to close at 3,498.66 points, a new high since March 2008. In general, individual stocks in the two cities fell more and rose less and the market atmosphere was general. .

Judging by the performance of the industry indices, 17 of Shenwan’s 28 top tier indices today rose, accounting for more than 60% of the total. Banks led earnings with a 2.25% increase. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, real estate, non-bank finance, The military and national defense industry index recorded the largest increase; the non-ferrous metals and communications industries index recorded the largest decline. From a capital flow perspective, today’s large-scale financing is clearly rushing to lift the big financial sector. Among them, the banking sector received a net purchase of 5.257 billion yuan in large-scale financing, and non-bank finance received a net purchase of large-scale financing of 2.331 billion yuan. Military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing are also in a state of large-scale net purchases.

Regarding the trend in today’s market conditions, Chen Wenjin, senior researcher at Qianming Assets, said in an interview with a Securities Daily reporter that today’s market still maintains a round robin style of industry earnings. Entering a short-term correction; supply and demand and prices for aquaculture and organic silicon are still optimistic, while the military industry will benefit from next year’s military spending growth expectations and order impact, and related adjustments tend to be short term; finance and real estate rallied late, pushing the index higher.

Judging from the market trend this week, the A market share shows a pattern of “Shanghai strong and Shenzhen weak”. Notably, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.91% this week and the Shenzhen Component Index was down 1.17% this week.

Since November, Northbound funds have significantly increased their interest in purchasing A-stock assets. Today, Northbound funds have net purchases of 2.476 billion yuan. This month’s net purchases of Northbound funds totaled 52.989 billion yuan, of which 16.85 billion yuan was net purchases this week. Judging from this month’s 20 trading days, northbound fund purchase days accounted for the majority, 13 trading days were net purchases, and 3 trading days net purchases exceeded 10 billion yuan.

As for the A-share market trend this week, Xia Fengguang, manager of the stellar future fund of the private equity ranking network, said in an interview with a Securities Daily reporter that this week is characterized by differentiation. Due to the strengthening of the financial and real estate sector, the Shanghai 50 Index made an upward turn. But the trend of most stocks is relatively slow. This reflects the confusion of the current market. After the cyclical sector continues to strengthen, there are already expectations for the recovery next year. However, the overall performance of the cyclical sector is still quite weak. Increased upward momentum in the market comes from the easing of the funds, along with concerns about the sustainability of the funds. As it increases, the pressure on it gradually increases. Over the medium to long term, cyclical low valued products, including finance and real estate, are still on the rise and there is no reason to be pessimistic regardless of their fundamentals or capital. So don’t worry too much about the market.

“The first half of the year is the structural market for medicine for the growth of science and technology. After consolidating from July to October, the market has recently shown more important style adjustments in traditional products such as the procyclical and financial sectors. This change of style is possible. It will last until the end of the year. This is because financial reforms, liquidity improvements and epidemic factors that favor the growth of science and technology in the medical sector in the short term will weaken or reverse their marginal effects; there are also institutional performance appraisals and long-term layout requirements to adjust positions. By suppressing the high valuation industry; coupled with the possibility of promoting a market-wide registration system next year, the market structure must be adjusted and balanced in the medium and long term rmine. “Huahui Chuangfu investment general manager Yuan Huaming told the” Securities Daily “reporter.

Regarding the market outlook, Chen Wenjin said that in the medium and long term, political expectations and confidence in the economic recovery are the main factors currently affecting the sector. As market sentiment has been restored to some extent in the near future, the global market is expected to fluctuate higher next week.

Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu Investment, believes the market will continue to consolidate and rotate in the short term. The economic and consumer recovery at home and abroad will be most evident at the end of the year and early next year and liquidity and investor sentiment will be more friendly. It is possible to exit the intermediate market towards the end of the year.

Chuancai Securities said that in terms of the market outlook, the rotation rate of the sector has accelerated in the near future, but is more biased towards pro-cyclical and low-value sectors. Overall, current northbound capital in the market continues to see net inflows and the recent overly large industry normal correction Don’t worry too much, the market outlook is cautiously optimistic.

In terms of investment strategy, Yuan Huaming suggested that investors should focus on traditional sectors represented by procyclicality in the short term that have not yet received widespread attention from the market, but with the in-depth development of epidemic control, the business it should improve. The growing pharmaceutical sector of science and technology is currently in an adjustment cycle, but some of them have medium- and long-term core competitiveness products and, if fully adequate, can gradually begin their layout towards the end of the year. ‘year.

Chen Wenjin said he is optimistic about the long-term Chinese medicine, new energy and advanced equipment manufacturing sectors and recommends investors stay balanced to address possible sector rotation risks.

Table: Shenwan primary industry market performance list on November 27th

Watchmaking: Chu Lijun

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