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The health of the Great Barrier Reef could be affected by regional weather conditions with La Nina set to bring a lot of conditions.
A La Nina weather pattern has now formed in the tropical Pacific and is likely to bring a long, wet summer.
Increased rainfall could be good news for the reef by cooling ocean temperatures.
However, the greater chance of a cyclone has the potential to devastate areas of the reef.
Marine experts met this week at a meeting called by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority to discuss these risks.
The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority’s chief scientist, Dr David Wachenfeld, said the whole picture of La Nina’s potential impact was still unclear.
“While cyclones can be detrimental to coral reefs and floods can wash pollutants in marine waters, increased rainfall and associated cloud cover can provide shade on the reef, cooling water temperatures,” he said.
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority chief scientist Dr. David Wachenfeld said regional weather patterns would play an important role in how La Nina affects the reef. Image: Brian Cassey
“However, compensating for this is the global rise in ocean temperatures resulting in longer and more frequent sea heatwaves, such as we have seen on the Great Barrier Reef over the past five years.”
Dr David Wachenfeld said corals are extremely sensitive to temperature changes and it’s important to try to unpack long-range weather forecasts.
Forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration both point to above-average sea temperatures through December 2020 and January 2021.
While La Nina events often result in a drop in ocean temperatures, thermal stress is still possible as sea surface temperatures across the reef have increased due to climate change.
The seminar found that regional and local weather conditions would influence coral reef temperatures and therefore the possible development of thermal stress.
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Britta Schaffelke, director of the research program at the Australian Institute of Marine Science, said monitoring will be crucial in identifying problems.
“AIMS science teams will continue our routine long-term coral reef monitoring and water quality monitoring, evaluating changes in reef conditions, which can result from cyclones, marine heatwaves or floods,” he said.
“AIMS also maintains ocean moorings, reef top weather stations and sensor networks, shallow reef-based temperature recorders and autonomous ocean gliders in partnership with the integrated marine observation system.
“This reef-level network allows us to continuously monitor ocean temperatures and look at forecast patterns to assess the risk of marine heatwave events.”
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