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The world of cryptocurrencies is full of prophets and forecasts of all ranges, just like any other financial market in the world. The 2018 has jumped straight into with Bitcoin (BTC) which is around $ 15,000 and investors are too optimistic about the future of digital currencies. Some of the premonitions – particularly related to the price of BTC by the end of the year – have never come true, but many have turned out to be rather realistic. Let's take a look back at all those hopes and fears.
Forecasts that have gone wrong
Tom Lee: BTC will reach $ 25K
It seems that one of the world's greatest crypts, co-founder and researcher of Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee, was unlucky enough to predict possible BTC rates. His main prophecy of the medal which reached $ 25,000 by the end of 2018, which he first expressed in January and then repeated several times during the year, seems unlikely: in December 2018, to put it mildly .
Lee himself admitted that his position was a mistake, first lowering the year-end mark to $ 15,000 and finally refusing to provide any comments on BTC's price:
"We are tired of people asking us for target prices, because of the intrinsic volatility of cryptography, we will cease to provide any period of time for the realization of fair value".
However, Lee still believes that the fair value of BTC is much higher than its current price. 2019 is almost here to prove if Fundstrat's co-founder is right.
Mike Novogratz: the institutions will dive into the crypt
Mike Novogratz, a former member of Goldman Sachs and founder of the Galaxy Digital encryption bank, was quite accurate in his 2018 forecast. In mid-December, after a significant market decline dubbed the "winter crypt," he said the price of BTC it would not have gone much, staying somewhere between $ 3,000 and $ 6,000, and it turned out just right.
But his optimism toward institutional players entering the crypto industry was apparently premature. "I think Q1 [or] Q2 [2019] if the institutions begin to enter, we will make new highs, "he said in October, however, Bloomberg's latest report states that Wall Street cryptic dreams are now in limbo, as the value of cryptocurrencies has declined. The insiders told Bloomberg that the financial giants – such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup – have given up their plans until the demand is higher.
Bloomberg: BTC is heading for $ 1.5K
In fact, the same Bloomberg analysts are prone to making mistakes when it comes to forecasts. Just a few weeks ago, shortly after the first signs of a sharp decline in the market, the media said that BTC was heading towards the $ 1,500 threshold, which would mean a 70% decline in the price of the currency. Well, the year is not over yet, but this prediction does not seem realistic.
At least they get points to say that "Bitcoin is no longer boring".
George Friedman: Blockchain will become obsolete
George Friedman, a geopolitical analyst for the online publication Geopolitical Futures, said in an interview in June that blockchain technology would one day become obsolete, stating that technology is just another passing fad.
While Friedman did not specify the amount of time he was talking about, as of the end of 2018, the blockchain is very far from being outdated. Mass adoption is no longer a vain fantasy, as governments around the world continue to test the blockchain in different areas. Even China, which has continued to impose a strict ban on initial coin offerings (ICOs) and domestic crypto trade, recognizes the advantages of decentralized technology and has its own blockchain pilot zone.
It seems that the aging of the blockchain in 2018 is more like a dystopian science fiction story than a reality.
John McAfee: BTC will hit $ 500,000 in three years
An old but unrealistic and unrealistic prediction of John McAfee, a cybersecurity legend and known cryptic lover, was released in 2017, but is still relevant for his extraordinary promise. At the time, McAfee had promised that it would "eat my national d-television" if BTC could not exceed $ 500,000 by 2020.
Since 2018 is almost over, it's still a year for McAfee not to split up with its manly parts. However, the pioneering spirit of information security is still strong. He even I raised the shot at $ 1 million and derided his own bet in a recent one Twitter post, claiming that – in the worst case – he would "subcontract the task to a team of Bangkok prostitutes". Well, all you have to do now is wait and see what happens.
Forecasts that have come true
Ari Paul: BTC and BCH will have more hard forks
Ari Paul, the co-founder of the ambitious cryptocurrency fund of the Block Tower cryptocurrency a set of forecasts on his Twitter at the start of 2018. Some of them were a bit hasty, but Paul managed to foresee Bitcoin Cash rigid fork (BCH). The entrepreneur then wrote:
"Both BTC and BCH will continue to focus on hard fork and> 10% of the value of each (if held today) will reside in new expansions."
Another BTC split has not yet happened, but the BCH fork occurred in November and provoked a hash war and a massive coin split, which was basically split into BCH ABC and BCH SV.
Todd Gordon: BTC will drop to $ 4,000
Almost six months before the "winter crypt", when most fans still maintained high-rate forecasts, Todd Gordon of TradingAnalysis.com had clearly predicted the decline of Bitcoin to $ 4,000. Furthermore, the currency has recently fallen less than $ 3,500.
However, the second part of its forecast is not yet clear. Will Bitcoin recover in 2019 and still surpass the $ 10,000 mark? Only time will tell.
Reggie Brown: BTC ETF will not happen soon
Reggie Brown, senior managing director and head of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) traded at the financial services company Cantor Fitzgerald, is hailed as the "Godfather of ETFs". In November, he said that a BTC ETF will not be certified anytime soon and was practically right.
His predictions were soon approved by a commissioner of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States. In December, Hester Peirce, nicknamed "Crypto Mom" by the Crypto community for his pro-cryptic statements, urged the community not to hold their breath waiting for a BTC ETF:
"Surely it could be in 20 years or tomorrow." "Do not hold your breath." The SEC took a long time [establish] Finhub. It may take even longer to approve a product traded on the stock exchange. "
Blythe Masters: Blockchain benefits from hitting raw material supply chains
The former JPMorgan Chase executive, Blythe Masters, predicted in October that a double or maybe triple blockchain would soon increase the efficiency of the commodity markets.
There may be tens instead of hundreds so far, but several recent blockchain projects in the agricultural and oil sectors show that his claim is quite relevant. For example, the four largest farms in the world – known together as ABCD – are integrating blockchains to automate the processes of post-trade execution of grains and oilseeds. And the major oil companies – such as BP, Shell and Equinor – have joined the big banks and trading houses to launch a blockchain-led platform called Vakt for the trading of energy commodities.
Chris Concannon: ICO Markets to Address the Causes of the SEC
In June, Chris Concannon, president of CBOE Global Markets, said that collective lawsuits would overwhelm companies behind ICO projects. He also invited ICO investors to keep their hands on the pulse of the future showdown.
Several months after his request, his words were backed by the SEC. In November, the US regulator imposed its first civil sanctions against two ICOs, solely for the non-registration of their token sales. One must not look very far to see that this battle has just begun.
Post scriptum Joseph Lubin: the bright future awaits you
The last, but not least, prediction was just made by Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin, who recently stated that the low price was left behind, adding the icing on the cake in another tweet dedicated to scalability problems:
"The sky is not falling, from my perspective the future looks very bright."
This statement, however, must still be demonstrated. The 2019 has 365 days in advance to surprise the cryptic industry and mere spectators.
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