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After evaluating the market and the latest trends, analysts of the international cryptocurrency trading platform PrimeXBT offered a forecast: they expect that the exchange rate of Bitcoin exceeds $ 6,000 in the first quarter of 2019, despite the skid Q4 that saw the world premiere of the digital asset struck low after the minimum. Both the technical analysis and the fundamental one confirm the theory.
Between May and November 2018, the bears made repeated attempts to exceed the $ 6,000 level (the exact range was $ 6,150 – $ 5,850), forming a global descendent triangle. The resistance line of the triangle is represented by highs of $ 9.865, $ 8.409 and $ 6.525, and the support line for six months was the level of 6,000. The descending triangle worked, breaking the support on November 13th. In just a few days, the price has dropped to 3,250-4,500.
The fact that the break below the $ 6,000 threshold took place exactly one year after the price has risen from this price level, followed by a $ 20,000 rally, is quite interesting. Now, the $ 6,000 level will not be easy to overcome, as it is a sign of very strong resistance in the history of Bitcoin.
The price level of $ 3000 [range $ 3,250 – $ 2,850] is an equally important historical brand that has resisted the bulls until August 4,2017 $. It is impossible to break $ 2,850 and even less when it comes to the value of Bitcoin due to the strength of this price level and relative strength index [RSI indicator], which is less than 20, a number that is considered a zone of strong oversold and gives a signal to traders to buy, thus keeping the price.
As a result, Bitcoin is "sandwiched" between two high price levels in the green corridor, approximately until the end of the first quarter of 2019. Strong fundamental events will help it exit the corridor, above $ 6,000 or below. $ 3,000.
New Year:
From 2014, traditionally in early January, Bitcoin has a significant decline in value:
- 2014: from $ 985 to $ 755 [-23.5%];
- 2015: from $ 320 to $ 165 [-48.5%];
- 2016: from $ 465 to $ 355 [-23.5%];
- 2017: from $ 1,180 to $ 750 [-36.5%];
- 2018 – from $ 17,200 to $ 9,150 in the first 2 weeks [-47%].
Given the statistics of the previous five years, it is likely that there will be a 25-35% reduction in the first half of January. Yet, the minimum price of 3,000 is unlikely to be broken, because even traditionally, before the new year, Bitcoin is growing, eliminating possible future losses. Technical analysis adds a positive pre-New Year's development, indicating the overseased RSI in the area of a strong support line. As a result, we can expect price increases to $ 4,200 – $ 4,500 until the end of 2018, followed by a return to current prices, $ 3,600 – $ 3,200, in the first half of January.
Bakkt cryptocurrency platform
One of the most anticipated events in the world of cryptocurrencies will be temporarily held on January 24, 2019: the Bakkt cryptocurrency platform for the trading of Bitcoin futures contracts regulated by CFTC [Commodity Futures Trading Commission] will be launched. The creator of this platform is ICE Futures U.S., the operator of the New York Stock Exchange. In fact, the boys of Wall Street come into play, which marks the arrival of large institutional investors and the official recognition of Bitcoin as a financial instrument.
This event should have a strong positive effect on the market and bring Bitcoin back to $ 6,000 or more by the end of January.
If the release date of the Bakkt platform were to be postponed for any reason, then the opposite situation is quite possible, which would mean a drop in the exchange rate. The most negative negative market reaction would occur if the delay occurs due to the fault of the regulators.
Chinese New Year
Contrary to popular belief that the Chinese New Year has a negative impact on the cryptocurrency market, the situation is exactly the opposite. While it is true that Bitcoin sank from $ 825 to $ 560 during the New Year celebrations in China in 2014, the decline was caused by DDoS attacks on the largest exchange of cryptocurrencies of that time, Mt. Gox, that after two months announced its closure. It was an isolated event
What happened in other years? Recall that the Chinese New Year, in contrast to its western counterpart, does not have a permanent start date and every year the date of the celebrations is set for a different time.
- 2015 [February 19 – March 5]: an increase from $ 240 to $ 285 [+ 19%]
- 2016 [February 8 – February 22]: an increase from $ 370 to $ 455 [+ 23%]
- 2017 [January 28 – February 11]: an increase from $ 920 to $ 1075 [+ 17%]
- 2018 [February 16 – March 2]: an increase from $ 9,765 to $ 11,765 [+ 20%]
As can be seen from the historical data, Bitcoin has grown on average by 20% during the Chinese New Year celebrations. As a consequence, this event, which will take place from February 5th to February 20th 2019, can be considered a positive fundamental factor.
April 2019
In April, the positive dynamics can continue thanks to news coming from Japan. Yahoo Japan plans to launch a cryptocurrency exchange in the Asian country, based on BitARG Exchange Tokyo, from which it acquired a 40% stake for $ 19 million in April 2018.
Bitcoin has quite favorable arguments for further growth and a recovery of prices above $ 6,000. It is worth noting that many analysts agree with this notion and expect that 2019 will be quite calm for Bitcoin, but extremely tough for the altcoins. In particular, experts predict the "death" of 90% of all tokens issued at the entrance of ICO, the reincarnation of ICO itself as STO (Security Token Offering) under the supervision of the SEC and of the regulators of other states.
There is also Hardfork Constantinople, who can help Ethereum and once again divide the community into two camps, and many other events that are based on the bitter experience of previous years and will benefit only the cryptocurrency market.
How can I make money while I own this information?
To get started, sign up for free on the PrimeXBT trading platform: it will not take longer than a minute. There is no verification of identity on the network, so you can start trading immediately.
Unlike other trading platforms, there is no need to open a $ 10,000 deposit. The minimum deposit on PrimeXBT is 0.001 BTC, or about $ 35 at the current rate.
Does it make sense to trade with such a small amount? No, it's useless. However, the PrimeXBT trading platform offers its customers an adjustable leverage of 1: 1 to 1: 100, which allows them to increase not only the capital of newbies, but also to significantly increase profits for experienced traders.
What to do if the forecast has not been justified and the market has gone down? Open trades for sale and make money on a declining market. On PrimeXBT, you can open short positions using the maximum leverage of 1: 100, which is impossible on other trading sites.
What to do if the bids have already been opened? Open opposing deals using leverage, thereby protecting risks.
In addition to the advantages mentioned above, the PrimeXBT trading platform has some significant features that help traders to conduct comfortable and successful trades:
- Customizable trading terminal for your needs. You can use an intuitive multi-monitor layout, an active order tracking widget, and more;
- For the convenience of traders, mobile applications have been developed for smartphones and tablets based on iOS and Android operating systems. You can always stay on the market and immediately open transactions, even hundreds of kilometers from the workplace;
- In case of questions or problems, a highly responsive assistance service works for traders, which works without interruptions and even on weekends, thus solving customer problems as quickly as possible;
- Multilevel security system, which includes two-factor authentication, SSL encryption, hashing of cryptographic passwords, storage of funds on "cold" portfolios and much more, ensuring the security of traders' funds and maintaining confidentiality.
Stay tuned for news and analysis from the PrimeXBT trading platform. You can register for free on the official website and trade without restrictions.
