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Oil prices have risen for the fifth time this year and it costs 6 yuan to fill a tank of oil
The adjustment of the prices of refined petroleum products in 2020 will show a pattern of “five rises, five falls and 12 strands”; the analysis suggests that the next round of refined oil prices could rise
The price of refined oil has been raised for the fifth time this year. This price adjustment is the 22nd price adjustment in 2020. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a notice stating that the price of gasoline and diesel will be increased at 24:00 on November 19, 150 yuan per ton of gasoline and 145 yuan per ton of gasoline, which is equivalent to an increase of 0.11 yuan per liter of gasoline 89, 0.12 yuan per liter of petrol 92 and 95 yuan per liter. Gasoline increases by 0.12 yuan and diesel no. 0 of 0.12 yuan.
According to statistics from the Beijing News Shell Finance and Economics reporter, after this price adjustment, the price adjustment of refined petroleum products in 2020 will show a pattern of “five highs, five lows and 12 strands”. The next price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on December 3, 2020. According to Xu Wenwen, Refined Oil Analyst at Longzhong Information, after the price adjustment, the cumulative drop in gasoline this year was 1,790 yuan. / ton and the decline in diesel was 1,725 yuan / ton.
Calculated on a normal private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters, after this price adjustment, car owners will spend about 6 yuan more to fill a 92 # gas tank; a car that consumes 7L-8L of fuel per 100 kilometers in the city will drive an average of 1,000 kilometers.The cost increases by about 9 yuan. For a large-scale logistics transport vehicle with a full load of 50 tons, the cost of fuel increases by approximately 48 yuan per 1,000 kilometers. This price adjustment will increase costs for private car owners and logistics companies.
Fill a box with No. 92 will cost about 6 yuan more
The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a notice stating that the price of gasoline and diesel will be raised at 24:00 on November 19, 150 yuan per ton of gasoline and 145 yuan per ton of gasoline, which is equivalent to to an increase of 0.11 yuan per liter of gasoline No. 89, 0.12 yuan per liter of gasoline No. 92 and n. Gasoline increases by 0.12 yuan and diesel no. 0 of 0.12 yuan.
This price adjustment will increase costs for private car owners and logistics companies. Calculated on a normal private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters, after the price adjustment, car owners will spend about 6 yuan more for a 92 # gas tank; a car that consumes 7L-8L per 100 kilometers in the urban area will travel an average of 1,000 kilometers. The cost increases by about 9 yuan. For a large-scale logistics transport vehicle with a full load of 50 tons, the cost of fuel increases by approximately 48 yuan per 1,000 kilometers.
After the current round of price adjustments, refined petroleum products in most regions of the country still remain at the age of 5 yuan. According to Longzhong Information, the price of vehicle diesel in most regions of the country is between 5.5 and 5.6 yuan / liter, and the retail price of 92 # gasoline is limited to 5.5- 5.7 yuan / liter. According to Xu Wenwen, a refined petroleum analyst at Longzhong Information, after the price adjustment, the cumulative drop in gasoline this year was 1,790 yuan / ton and the decline in diesel was 1,725 yuan / ton.
“During the current cycle of price adjustment (November 5-November 19), the rate of change has shown substantially positive fluctuations. The main influencing factors are the following: 1. With Biden’s victory in the elections, uncertainty It falls and investors are betting the dollar will fall. And risk assets have risen and global equity markets have skyrocketed. 2. Positive news on vaccine research and development in Europe and the United States has boosted market confidence 3. Saudi Energy Minister Abdul Aziz said that if oil-producing countries reach a consensus, OPEC The OPEC + alliance formed with Russia and other allies could modify the production reduction agreement. market news, OPEC + could extend production reduction agreement to full year 2022. 4. OPEC member states said OPEC could extend ‘current scale of production reduction to next year, and some countries There is an intention to expand the scale of production reduction 5. On November 17, OPEC + will hold a meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) . Additionally, ministers will meet on November 30 and December 1, which does not rule out the possibility of further production cuts. Li Chunyan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, analyzed.
Li Chunyan said that during the price adjustment cycle, the domestic market for petroleum products mainly fluctuated. Although domestic refined petroleum products were plagued with excess resources this year and the “Golden Nine, Silver and Ten” markets showed a downward trend, domestic gasoline and diesel prices fell to a low level in November during year and production costs have approached market prices. Additionally, international crude oil continued to rise after falling to a low level. The short-term benefits are concentrated and the internal market prices for gasoline and diesel have risen steadily. Especially in the south, the demand for diesel still exists and the diesel market is relatively strong.
“Rising gasoline and diesel retail prices this time are positive support for the domestic refined oil market. Recently, the start-up of major refineries has fluctuated to the downside, while the start of Shandong independent refineries is still high and the market is currently abundant. The medium and low segments of the market have negative and low expectations Stocks are ongoing, but with the recent increase in gasoline and diesel prices, the market only needs refueling. In late November, the temperature in the north has gradually decreased, the start of outdoor projects has a gradual decline and the demand for diesel has also decreased. However, the demand for diesel in the south has hardly been in demand. There is still support and the market of diesel is relatively strong. Before the next price adjustment cycle (the next price adjustment cycle will open at 24:00 on December 3, 2020), the domestic market for pe Refined trolio will have stable and tight fluctuations of gasoline and diesel. The trend of small and medium growth, “Li Chunyan said.
The likelihood of the next round of increases in the price of refined oil is expected to be greater
“During this price cycle, international crude oil has stabilized after the hike. Recently, there has been positive news on vaccine research and development in Europe and the US. In addition, OPEC + is expected to postpone the current scale of production reduction, which offsets market concerns about overseas epidemics and increased supply in Libya, and provides some support for oil prices. However, the growth of U.S. commercial crude oil inventories and market concerns over the epidemic inhibited the rise. The average price of related oil types increased and the corresponding overall rate of change of crude oil moved into a positive range, opening the window for this cycle of retail price increases “. Master Liu Wenjie said.
Liu Wenjie said that international oil prices continued to rise during this period and the news was positive for the oil market. Therefore, the main household units actively coordinate the market and actively promote price promotion, and the Poly mindset is even more evident. Therefore, as retail prices rise in this round, it is estimated that wholesale gasoline prices may rise accordingly, but the increase is relatively limited. Judging by the recent market shipping situation, East China market purchases and sales tend to be stable and the demand for gasoline and diesel is still acceptable, but the game of market supply and demand continues and demand rigid is limited. Average daily shipments range from 500 tons to 1500 tons. At present, the trading center of East China’s main diesel wholesale market is settled at 4650-4950 yuan / ton and the gasoline transaction center is settled at 5150-5450 yuan / ton.
Based on the analysis of the current Longzhong data model, compared to the previous price adjustment cycle, the retail price of gasoline and diesel has been lowered, while the wholesale price has increased steadily, causing the profit margin to decrease of service stations compared to the previous period. Among them, gasoline retail profits of major service stations decreased by an average of 117 yuan / ton; retail profits of main diesel oil decreased 161 yuan / ton; refining service station diesel profits in point of sale decreased simultaneously, and profit decreased by 195 yuan / ton; at the same time, refining and refueling sales Gas station profits also fell, dropping 167 yuan / ton.
The next price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on December 3, 2020. After the current round of price increases for refined oil, the retail price cap will increase and retail profits are expected to increase in the following period . The gasoline retail profit forecast is revised up by about RMB 0.11 per liter and the diesel retail profit is revised up by about RMB 0.12 per liter.
Longzhong Information analyst Li Yan said that based on the current international level of crude oil price, the next round of refined oil price adjustments will begin to show an uptrend, with an amplitude of around 120 yuan / ton. At present, the OPEC + month-end meeting is likely to postpone the current scale of production reduction. There is frequent positive news about vaccine research and development in Europe and the United States. Furthermore, the US dollar remains low. The next round of refined oil price adjustments is expected to have a higher probability.
Jiang Na, a refined oil analyst from Jinlianchuang, said that an upward adjustment is still expected in the following period and the news has given some support to the oil market. The faces of downstream demand vary: with a limited travel range, the demand for gasoline is difficult to increase. At the moment, the demand for diesel in industry, mining, infrastructure and logistics is relatively stable, so the diesel market is relatively optimistic. However, the operating load of inland refineries remained high in the subsequent period and the supply of resources was relatively sufficient.Considering that the foreign epidemic is still severe, the export of refined oil is more difficult and the oversupply of internal resources will continue, which will significantly suppress the internal market. Overall, although the prospects for the domestic refined oil market may have a small increase, the rate is limited.
Beijing News reporter Zhang Shuxin
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