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Ethereum (ETH) is on the verge of a trend reversal. If we look at the candles on the weekly ETH / USD chart, the probability of a breakout does not seem very plausible. The 10-week EMA is still far enough from the 21-week EMA EMA. The price is traded under EMA at 5 weeks and has not been able to go up for the last 20 weeks. However, if we look at the technical indicators, we see something we have not seen since the beginning of the correction. If we look at the blue and red lines on the MACD profile for the weekly chart ETH / USD, we can see that these lines have never been so close since the beginning of the correction.
In simple terms, when the blue lines of the MACD cross over the red line, we see an increase in the price of Ethereum (ETH). However, when the blue line has been below the red line since the correction began, a crossover at this point would be a trend reversal signal. Both of these lines have begun to converge around September, but this is the first time they are approaching. The significance of this development is that the bulls do not need much to change the moment in their favor from here on. If we look at the ETH / USD price, it has failed to exceed the EMA at 5 weeks from May. At this point it will be enough to take a strong candle to push it over the EMA at 5 weeks.
If the price of Eth / USD rises and closes above EMA at 5 weeks, it would be the first sign of a trend reversal. At that moment, many new buyers would rush to the market. Even most of the Ethereum bears (ETHs) will close their short positions and we will see a strong turnaround. If the price continues to remain below the EMA at 5 weeks, then it may go down to the bottom of the fall wedge. In that case, we could see the price continue to fall towards the bottom of the wedge until the end of the year. Frankly, there's plenty of room for more downsides at this point. The only reason the price could fall aggressively from here is if we had to enter another correction that seems unlikely.
Ethereum (ETH) also ran the entire course of a correction against Bitcoin (BTC). The ETH / BTC fall wedge is exchanged, suggesting two possibilities. Or the price could break the wedge falling and start a new cycle or the price could break the support and start another correction. Both of these events are possible but an upward break from the fall wedge is more likely. Just like with ETH / USD, the MACD profile shows a strong possibility of a trend reversal in the coming weeks. As we saw earlier, ETH / BTC trades in an alternating series of wedges that rise and fall. If the price will break out of this wedge that falls, we will see a new growing wedge going into it that will take it to its new historical high for years to come.
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