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Nov. 12 (UPI) – Although global greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced to zero by the end of the year, new research from Norway suggests that Earth’s climate, after a brief drop in global temperatures, will continue to warm to at least 2500.
By 2500, simulations suggest Earth’s climate will average 3 degrees Celsius warmer than it was in 1850, even with the rapid elimination of human emissions of greenhouse gases. Sea level will be at least eight feet higher, according to the model.
Using data from various IPCC reports, researchers from BI Norwegian Business School analyzed the relationship between reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and changes in global climate between 1850 and the present.
“We then used the resulting set of estimated causal relationships – the causal structure of the model – to calculate future developments,” lead author Jorgen Randers told UPI in an email.
“Every race, or every future scenario, is driven by an exogenously determined rate of man-made greenhouse gas emissions,” said Randers, professor of climate strategy at BI.
Unlike many of the major climate models, which are extremely complex, require a lot of time and computing power, the model developed by Randers and his research partners is quite lean.
“Ours is a relatively simple model compared to the large general circulation models that are commonly used,” Randers said. “Works in seconds on a laptop.”
The model showed that if greenhouse gas emissions peak during 2030 and are reduced to zero by the end of the century, global temperatures will be 3 degrees Celsius warmer by 2500 than they were in 1850. Sea level it will rise by nearly 10 feet.
The findings, published Thursday in Scientific Reports, echo those of previous studies, which showed that an insignificant level of warming and sea level rise has already been incorporated into Earth’s climate systems.
The authors of the new paper suspect that the Earth will continue to warm, even after the elimination of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, as the Earth’s permafrost will continue to melt over the next few centuries, releasing water vapor, methane and CO2 – all gases. that warm the planet. – in the earth’s atmosphere.
Additionally, the new simulations suggest that the loss of polar ice will result in less solar energy being reflected back into space.
The authors state their results are not allowed to be waived.
“We continue to emphasize that humanity can dramatically improve the situation by phasing out the use of fossil fuels as soon as possible – to limit the temperature rise before self-sustaining melting accelerates – and by preparing for the large-scale removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, “Randers said.
Randers recognized that there are many uncertainties in their climate model, as in most climate models. This is one of the reasons why he and his colleagues tried to keep their model as simple as possible so that other scientists could easily use it for their own research.
“We published to get the great modelers to test whether the self-sufficient melting phenomenon of permafrost can also be observed in their models when they run them far enough into the future,” Randers said.
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