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Although global greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced to zero by the end of the year, new research findings in Norway indicate that Earth’s climate will continue to warm after a brief drop in global temperatures of at least 2,500 degrees.
According to simulations, the Earth’s climate will be on average 3 degrees Celsius warmer by 2500 than in 1850, although human emissions of greenhouse gases are quickly eliminated. According to the model, the sea level will be at least eight feet higher.
Using data from various IPCC reports, researchers from BI Norwegian Business School analyzed the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions reductions and changes in global climate between 1850 and today.
“We then used the resulting set of estimated causal relationships – the causal structure of the model – to calculate future developments,” lead author Jorgen Randers explained in an email.
“Each execution, or future scenario, is determined by a determined exogenous rate of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions,” said Randers, professor of climate strategy at BI.
Unlike many major climate models, which are extremely complex and require a lot of time and computing power, the model developed by Randers and his research partners is rather lean.
“Ours is a relatively simple model compared to commonly used general circulation models,” Randers said. “Works in seconds on a laptop.”
The model showed that if greenhouse gas emissions peak in the 2030s and are reduced to zero by the end of the century, global temperatures will be 3 degrees Celsius warmer by 2500 than in 1850. Sea level will rise by almost 3 meters.
The findings, published Thursday in Scientific Reports, are consistent with results from previous studies that have shown warming and sea level rise are already on fire in the Earth’s climate system.
The authors of the new paper suspect that the Earth will continue to warm even after man-made greenhouse gas emissions are eliminated because the permafrost soil will continue to melt over the next few centuries, releasing water vapor, methane and CO2 – all gases. than to warm the planet – in the earth’s atmosphere.
Additionally, the new simulations indicate that the loss of polar ice will lead to less reflection of solar energy in space.
The authors say their findings are not a permit to give up.
“We continue to emphasize that humanity can greatly improve the situation by phasing out the use of fossil fuels as soon as possible – to limit the temperature rise before self-sustaining melting accelerates – and preparing for large-scale removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, “Randers said.
Randers acknowledged that there are many uncertainties in his climate model, as in most climate models. This is one of the reasons why he and his colleagues tried to keep their model as simple as possible so that other scientists could easily use it for their own research.
“We published to get the big model makers to test whether the self-supporting melting phenomenon of permafrost can be observed in their models if they let them run far enough into the future,” Randers said.
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