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Technical analysts believe that the price of Bitcoin is at a turning point. Using the GTI VERA Bands indicator, a new Bloomberg article suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency might be "on the edge of a big move". It could go either way, suggests the indicator. The price movement of Bitcoin over the last 18 months shows that surprises could be on the cards. The crypta volatility has been decidedly lower in recent times.
The founder of Ikigai, Travis Kling, is not sure what will happen. Ikagai is a "multistrategy Cryptoasset hedge fund". It takes its name from the "reason to be Japanese". He cautiously suggests that the fund is probably not for Bitcoin. He told Bloomberg:
I am certainly willing to change my mind, but the preponderance of the evidence leads us to believe that we will see lower before going higher.
As an internal CCN analyst, Yashu Gola wrote:
The intermediate feeling is bringing bitcoin to two possible scenarios. In the first scenario, the bitcoin would initially keep its gains and extend its rally to post cooler higher peaks. Another is a complete reverse, in which bitcoin would erase all its earnings due to its long-term bearish bias.
Bitcoin moves in mysterious ways. The bearish market of 2014-2015 saw occasional peaks followed by net minimums. Bitcoin volatility has occasionally been in the 50% range. The fund was under $ 100. If Bitcoin makes similar moves in the current market, the real fund could be less than $ 400.
Who will sell before the next Bitcoin Bull Run?
This obviously requires a large amount of sales. Which we have seen before. However, the market is bigger now than it was then. First of all, there are more coins. For another, there are more investors. Therefore, the drastic drops in the $ 1000 range take longer to achieve. They are certainly possible. It is difficult to surprise the veterans of the crypt.
In his heart, Bitcoin is a speculative instrument. It can function as a reserve of value but it will never be stable. Those who embrace this reality tend to overcome the markets better, sell at appropriate times and identify purchasing opportunities.
The demand for Bitcoin remains high. Crypto volatility is no longer what it used to be. There are also rumors that the Russian government could make a multimillion dollar purchase in a sovereign move. US sanctions could therefore complicate Bitcoin's trading markets.
Drastic statements on the price of Bitcoin are common and have always been. Roger Ver's $ 100,000 prediction of the past years has not yet come to fruition. More recently, Tom Lee stood close to his overly confident prediction.
It is cryptic. Come for the laughs, stay for the volatility. There is a percentage of people who have bought more than $ 10,000 who have yet to sell. It is unlikely that these people will sell before a race to the bull resumes it in that direction. There is a percentage of those who have been burned in the same moves and will never buy them again.
What is certain: 2019 is an important year for Bitcoin. It may be the year that the oldest cryptocurrency approaches $ 1 trillion market capitalization compared to the past, or it may be the year that alternatives become more valuable. The "network effects" are just metrics. They are not laws of physics. Technically speaking, Bitcoin could be lower than alternative networks as they are more agile in integrating changes.
But these are all improbable scenarios. Those who want some form of "price stability" will want it forever, and the author is inclined to agree with Travis Kling: it will probably be worse before it gets better.
Shutterstock foreground image.
