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Credit bond defaults have little impact on A shares and these sectors rebounded more strongly after the impact
Wang Youruo
This week, A shares got off to a good start on Monday, but then the funds were weak, they were weak and they fluctuated for 4 consecutive days and didn’t have the main upline. In this regard, institutional analysis believes that historical data shows that credit debt default disturbances have little impact on the equity market and credit spreads are unlikely to widen significantly during the economic recovery period. With the continued progress of the economic recovery, the A stock market still has a relatively high investment price ratio.
At the same time, the fourth quarter of 2020 is halfway through, and securities firms have subsequently released their strategic outlook for 2021. Some institutions are cautiously optimistic about next year’s A-stock investment opportunities, believing that still features of a structural market and that industry concentration and major premiums are still the strongest trends for A shares.
Credit debt default has limited disruption to A shares.
Recently, the credit debt default incident affected market sentiment. About this,Haitong SecuritiesThe strategy team said historical data shows that credit debt defaults have little impact on the equity market and credit spreads are unlikely to widen significantly during the economic recovery period. The reincarnation of the bull is an objective law.The bull market that started in early 2019 is still ongoing, and is currently in the two-wheel drive phase of capital and fundamentals. In terms of configuration, Haitong Securities believes that the post-cyclical financial sector is better in the short and medium term, and the main line of the medium and long term is still the technology stocks that represent transformation and updating.
The strategy team for open source stocks said that historically, when a liquidity shock occurs in the bond market, the stock market can give rise to investment opportunities. After reviewing the cases in mid-2013 and late 2016, Kaiyuan Securities believes liquidity risks will suppress the stock market to some degree in the short term and financial and real estate declines are ranked high, but after the end of the disruption, the market rebounded rapidly. Affected sectors performed well in the rebound.
This week, following the historic inflow of nearly 20 billion yuan of northbound funds on Monday, the remaining days remained net outflows.
Guosen SecuritiesHe said the A stock market still has a high investment price ratio, and the overall net inflow of foreign capital has not changed. In terms of the configuration of the sector, since October, foreign investors have increased their positions in the consumer and cycles sectors such as appliances, banks, automobiles and electrical equipment. Looking ahead, there is a discrepancy between the current epidemic prevention and control and the pace of economic recovery at home and abroad. The profitability of listed companies in A shares is expected to continue to improve and A shares still have a relatively high investment price ratio.
How to invest in 2021?
Recently, a number of securities firms have been extensively publishing 2021 strategy reports to analyze next year’s investment opportunities.
Shen Wan HongyuanSecurities said 2021 is a “small year” for the A-stock market. The market is expected to be in a weak position for most of the second-third quarter. “Precise timing” is needed to capture total opportunities in 2021. Shen Wan Hongyuan said A-share’s three small-cap cash flows in Q2 2020 will be improved. Net income for the third quarter of 2020 will begin to show high year-over-year flexibility, but profitability will continue to decline and financial expense ratios are still rising. Small business improvement is in an unstable initial cycle and industry concentration and peak premiums are still the strongest trending elements for A shares.
Industrial securitiesZhang Yidong, chief global strategist and deputy dean of the Institute of Economics and Finance, said in his vision of the global market next year that he maintains a strategically optimistic view of the Chinese stock market and believes that Hong Kong shares are cheaper than to shares A.
In particular, considering short- and medium-term liquidity, valuation, economic recovery, etc., combined with the medium- and long-term “age of equity assets” background, more assets are still worth doing. high-quality national equities. At the same time, according to Zhang Yidong, US stocks will have a poor price / performance ratio in 2021 and profitability will be needed to digest high valuations. As for the Hong Kong stock market, he believes the index bull market is expected next year and AH stock premium may converge. Regarding the A-share market, Zhang Yidong said: “There is still a structural market and the value and growth style will remain balanced.”
The allocation of core assets is now divergent
There are also differences in institutional views on the possibility of continuing the grouping of core activities.
The industrials strategy team said next year will be the first year of the “14th Five Year Plan” and the first year after the “Thirty Years” of the A stock market. Regardless of the institutional environment, the structure of investors and the quality of listed companies, there will be new prospects. , The A stock market as a whole will float upward. After 30 years of “horse racing”, the high-quality “core asset” leader has won and is expected to enjoy the “long cow” in the future.
Western China stocksThe strategic team also believes that the characteristics of the institution’s “group warming reporting” will not change next year, but does not rule out that in some stages it will encounter low valuation market impulse test. Investors are advised to implement “new five golden flowers” on dips, namely: new finance (broker), new technology (chip, military industry, digital economy, cloud computing, network security, 5G, Beidou), new consumption (tax free, consumer electronics) Etc.), new health (medical), new energy and other sectors.
Shen Wan Hongyuan believes long-term prosperous assets are already in a high valuation state, while the stability of the fundamental improvement in undervalued assets remains questionable. Once market expectations have tightened, there may be a “core asset model with stable fundamental expectations being digested by performance, fundamental disturbances or risk appetite driving asset callbacks to digest valuations and a very small number of assets” of new prosperity increases their valuations “.
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