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Original title:[Il petrolio greggio chiude]US oil is back $ 41! “Risk assets may face a period of weakness” US crude oil inventories surged sharply last week, as investors digested advances in vaccine research and development
FX168 Financial News (North America) As data released by the US Energy Information Administration showed that US crude oil inventories rose sharply last week and investors digested the positive news about the vaccine development, the initial positive sentiment surrounding the new vaccine against the coronavirus began to fade and oil prices fell Thursday (Nov 12). It can continue the earnings of the previous trading day.As of press time, December WTI US crude oil futures closed down 33 cents, or 0.79%, at $ 41.12 a barrel. It hit a low of $ 40.87 a barrel during the session; January Brent crude oil futures closed 27 cents lower. , A decline of 0.61%, to US $ 43.53 per barrel;The previous trading day, US oil closed 5 cents higher, or 0.12%, at $ 41.45 a barrel; Bulk Oil closed up 19 cents, or 0.25%, at $ 43.80 a barrel.
(December WTI Crude Oil Futures 5-Minute Chart, Source: TradingView, FX168)
Fundamental positive factors:
1. According to reports, talks between OPEC and its allies have focused on postponing the projected increase in production for next year for 3-6 months. As the leaders of the 23-nation alliance, Saudi Arabia and Russia have publicly stated that they are thinking twice about plans to ease production reduction efforts in January as the resumption of the outbreak has hit fuel demand. The Russian president and OPEC leaders have even mentioned options for further production reductions. A representative said this idea has not yet received broad support. Delegates who requested anonymity said that less than three weeks before the final decision at the meeting, OPEC + is increasingly focusing on maintaining the current rate of production reduction through early 2021. The alliance currently reduces production by approximately 7.7 million barrels per day, representing 8% of global production.
2. According to an Associated Press report on Monday, the nucleic acid RNA vaccine developed jointly by US pharmaceutical company Pfizer and German biotech company BioNTech prevented 90 percent of infections in large-scale studies. However, Pfizer said preliminary data shows that the new coronavirus vaccine under review is effective, but that doesn’t mean the vaccine will be available in the short term. Current data will help require the US regulatory agency to use the vaccine in an emergency, and further testing is still ongoing.
3. OPEC originally planned to ease the current cycle of production cuts starting in January next year. For now, this plan is still valid. But member states and OPEC analysts have always said that OPEC could extend the implementation of this plan. The current blockade is threatening the structure of the oil industry: some oil and gas companies did not survive the previous cycle of blockade and low demand, and other oil and gas companies may fall in the future.
Fundamental negative factors:
1. At 0:00 on Friday morning Hong Kong time, data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 4.278 million barrels to 488 , 7 million barrels, an increase of 0.9% during the week of November 6. Previously expected to decrease by 1.9 million barrels, the previous value decreased by 7.998 million barrels.
2. On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (EIA) released its monthly report on the short-term energy outlook. The EIA adjusted the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2020 to -8.61 million barrels per day, compared to -8.62 million barrels per day; and adjusted the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2021 to 5.89 million barrels per day, compared to 6.25 million barrels per day. /day. The price of oil in 2020 is estimated to be USD 40.61 / barrel, which was previously forecast at USD 41.19 / barrel. The price of US oil is expected to be $ 44.24 per barrel in 2021, up from the previous estimate of $ 44.72 per barrel. The price of US oil is expected to be $ 38.24 per barrel in 2020, up from the previous estimate of $ 38.76 per barrel.
3. According to Worldometers’ real-time statistics, at 02:37 am on November 13th Hong Kong time, there were 52.8 million confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus worldwide, an increase from 377,436 to 52,805. 232 and 1.29 million deaths and an increase of 5,469. To 1,294,399 cases. The number of countries with more than 100,000 confirmed cases worldwide has increased to 57. The number of new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States on Wednesday hit a record 145,000 in a single day. US public health officials and experts have warned that all indicators point to the outbreak developing in a dangerous direction and “Pandora’s box” has been opened. According to the Washington Post report, 1,408 people died of new coronary pneumonia in the United States on Wednesday, the highest level since May 14. The number of patients with new coronary pneumonia hospitalized in the United States has surpassed 64,000, which is near the peak of the first wave of the epidemic this spring. Of the hospitalized patients, nearly 3,000 have already used ventilators. Many Midwestern states suffer from a shortage of medical resources. Many hospitals have already experienced “ward deficits”.
4. Research results show that the US economy has returned to slowdown due to the new wave of epidemics. US consultancy BCA Research said in a research report that the economic slowdown will highlight the urgency of a new round of stimulus plans, but there is still great uncertainty about the timing and scope of the deal. Furthermore, before hard data deteriorates significantly, the deal may still be difficult to reach, and before the deal is approved, the price of risky assets faces a weak window.
Institutional comments:
1. Citigroup analysts also remain cautious, stating that the outlook for international two-line crude oil supply and demand news in 2021 is still bleak for the oil market bulls. Despite advances in vaccine research and development, achieving universal immunization is still a long way to go, even before the epidemic continues to spread. At the same time, many industries, such as aviation and tourism, suffered heavy losses during the epidemic and the entire population suffered a severe setback. Even if the epidemic disappears, in the face of the new market normal, it is not expected to be able to recover immediately, which will continue to demand the oil market. Build a lasting resistance. On the contrary, it is imperative and expected for OPEC + countries to further restore production capacity in 2021.
2. ANZ Bank analysts said in the report that although the new corona vaccine has made significant progress recently, due to the still difficult outlook for the crude oil market, OPEC + may have to postpone the increase in production by 3 months . The agency pointed out that due to the deteriorating demand outlook due to new epidemic prevention measures, the oil market could reappear in the fourth quarter of this year with an oversupply. The agency believes that if OPEC + adheres to the current plan, it will increase production by 2 million barrels per day from January. In the first half of next year, there could be a surplus of 1.5-3 million barrels per day. OPEC + also faces increased supply from Libya, and member states such as Iraq and Kuwait continue to overproduce.
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