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WINNIPEG – New model for COVID-19 predicts a bleak future for Canada, but tight restrictions in Manitoba have caught the attention of the country’s provincial public health chief who is looking to change the trend.
The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) has released a model for the second wave of COVID-19, which estimates that Canadians could see 20,000 cases a day across the country by the end of December if the current trajectory remains the same.
“We know that some jurisdictions have applied some more restrictions, so we’ll try to see what provinces like Manitoba look like, for example,” said Dr Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer.
Public health officials have urged Canadians to reduce the number of people they come into contact with, a goal that the new restrictions in Manitoba are trying to achieve.
Restrictions on Manitoba’s revised red code went into effect on Friday. The order says that inside-home gatherings are now limited to family members only, while outdoor gatherings are limited to five people or fewer. It also prevents non-essential items from being sold in person.
According to PHAC models, Manitoba could register more than 600 cases per day by December.
Dr Brent Roussin, Manitoba’s provincial public health manager, said these models are what led Manitoba to implement the most restrictive orders the province has had to date.
“We know that we cannot support these daily numbers, our health system will not be able to support them,” he said. “We have very active cases, we have a high number of hospitalizations both in medicine and in intensive care, and it is not sustainable.”
Roussin told Manitobans to stay home, leaving for essential reasons only.
The actions of the Manitobans can make a difference, according to epidemiologist Cynthia Carr, the founder of EPI Research. He said the projection shows that individuals’ behavior can affect outcomes.
“There can be an exponential increase, but also an exponential decrease,” he said.
Carr pleads with Manitoba leaders in places large and small to follow public health advice and encourage others to do the same.
“Unless you are an infectious disease control specialist, you don’t know more about Dr. Roussin or Dr. Tam.”
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