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| Well | Current value | Daily change |
| EUR / USD | 1.1502 | -0.32% |
| GBP / USD | 1.2748 | -0.38% |
| USD / JPY | 108.33 | 0.27% |
| AUD / USD | .7184 | 0.15% |
| GOLD | 1,288 | -0.41% |
| WTI Crude Oil | 52.32 | 0.36% |
| BTC / USD | 3,626 | -9.39% |
The Forex markets had another full day of events amid the collapse of cryptocurrencies, and although yesterday the Dollar was hit hard, today the reserve currency managed to rebound against its most important major. The risk assets have had a modestly positive day, even if the trade negotiations between China and the United States ended without any specific result, not to mention some form of agreement, the overseas rally fueled by the central bank continued.
Jerome Powell, president of the Fed, delivered another speech today and delivered a balanced message, stating that the Fed will be patient with its future rate hikes, while continuing its quantitative narrowing. The American stock rally lost part of its steam after the speech somewhat less accommodating than expected, while the EUR / USD fell below the 1.15 level and the dollar index has risen above the level of 95.
The other major pairs were little changed, with the Swiss franc plunging into another significant move, a day after the SNB released Foreign Reserve Report, revealing large losses in its company due to the recent turmoil in the financial markets .
Technical analysis
EUR / USD, 4 hour chart analysis
Yesterday's breakout in the most traded pair is already at risk, as the euro suffered most of its gains immediately. The pair was already under pressure in the early stages of trade as a result of much weaker French industrial production than expected, and the common currency closed the session close to the intraday low against the Greenback, following Mr. Powell's words.
The pair is now trading in the key support / resistance zone surrounding the 1.15 level, and even if a failed move is not yet confirmed, the bulls would quickly need a follow-through rally, especially in light of the trend long-term clearly bearish. The coming days will be crucial for the short-term trend and a quick move towards the October swing close to 1.1625 is still at stake, but we remain negative on the long-term outlook.
Futures S & P 500, analysis of the 4-hour chart
Today, US stocks have marked a new marginal high rebound, but the momentum of the move has been weak, and this is a warning sign for forex traders who also negotiate the countertrend movement in risk-on currencies. The main Wall Street indices have marked the highest step so far this year, ending up in the green for the 5thth day in a row today and coming back to their October lows in the process.
Despite the high post-Christmas earnings, we still consider the move as a counter-current rally, and at current levels, downside risks are very high, even considering the dovish shift in the Fed's rhetoric. Given the weaker rebound in late global benchmarks , the broad global downtrend continues to be dominant and the new lows are likely to benefit the stocks.
USD / JPY, 4 hour chart analysis
USD / JPY has exceeded 109 after the flash-crash as we expected, and although another push towards 110 could be ahead, we expect the Yen rally to continue. The pair could challenge its lows from 2018, which stopped the flash crash last week, and traders should look for entry points on the short side, with other key levels to look at found at 105.50, 108.25 and 108.75.
Copper futures, analysis of the 4-hour chart
Copper continues to follow Chinese actions closely, while showing clear signs of long-term technical weakness. The commodity turned out to be less than the dominant short-term trend line, and has probably returned to the New Year lows, with a clear break below last year's low and an increasingly probable $ 2.50 level test. Traders should still look for entry points on the short side, although correcting risky assets may continue.
Key economic events tomorrow
chartbook
Forex
GBP / USD, 4 hour chart analysis
EUR / GBP, 4-hour chart analysis
AUD / USD, 4 hour chart analysis
EUR / JPY, 4 hour chart analysis
AUD / JPY, 4 hour chart analysis
GBP / JPY, 4 hour chart analysis
USD / CHF, 4 hour chart analysis
USD / CNH, 4 hour chart analysis
Commodities
WTI Crude Oil, analysis of the 4-hour chart
Gold futures, 4-hour chart analysis
Major stock indices
DAX 30 Index CFD, analysis of the 4-hour chart
Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-hour chart analysis
Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4 hour chart analysis
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