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Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
Bitcoin saw its third worst fall of 2018 on November 14, as it fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the year. In doing so, he broke the critical support of $ 5,900, which was held throughout the year. Before the breakup, Bitcoin had entered a period of low volatility that had not been seen for years.
We expected the resolution of the narrow range in cryptocurrencies to be on the upside, so our bias was on the long side. However, with the fall, the technical picture has weakened and our hypothesis has been denied. We have to review our strategy in this new scenario.
Interestingly, not all cryptocurrencies have followed Bitcoin to the lows since the beginning of the year. There are some who have held up pretty well. Ripple has overtaken Ethereum as the second most valuable cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization. So, there are some bright spots even in this chaos.
Bitcoin Cash has completed its fork without major accidents. However, since it is still in its early days, we have skipped the analysis of both coins today.
After the recent fall, how should traders approach the markets? Is it time to step aside and wait, or do some cryptocurrencies offer a purchase opportunity? We study the graphs and find out.
BTC / USD
Bitcoin plummeted below the $ 5,900 support on November 14 at an intraday low of $ 5,737.02. The closing (UTC) of the day was at $ 5,932.75, which shows the purchase close to the lows. However, the bears continued to sell the next day, further collapsing prices to $ 5,430.02, which was just below the $ 5,450 support. Some purchases were again seen at lower levels while the digital currency recovered lost ground and closed at $ 5.747.05.
The withdrawal from the intraday minima in the last two days shows that lower levels are attracting purchases. This indicates a new breakpoint test of $ 5,900 over the next 4-5 days.
The performance of the BTC / USD pair at the $ 5,900 level will give us a better idea of what to expect. If the bulls unlock easily and claim over $ 5,900, then this current fall will be a fakeout, which has eliminated all the weaker hands on the long side before climbing.
On the other hand, if the bears defend $ 5,900- $ 6,075 and the virtual currency falls from there, it will indicate the sale from long positions blocked to higher levels and a short initiation by traders who anticipate lower levels in the future.
So, what should operators do?
A new low from the beginning of the year shows weakness, so long positions should not be started until a minimum is confirmed. Since the RSI is deep in the oversold territory, even a short position is not advisable, because a sudden withdrawal can occur at any time. Because of uncertainty, it is better to sit down and wait a few days.
If the price scales $ 5,900 and supports it above, we might try to go for a long time. Any break greater than $ 6,832 will be a confirmation of the start of a new upward trend. Until then, the digital currency risks going back.
Analysts will mention various lower levels that can be scary. Let's do it one step at a time and act accordingly, without being affected by noise.
XRP / USD
Ripple shows considerable strength and is well above its lows since the beginning of the year. In fact, it has not even dropped to the first major support at $ 0.37185 in the recent carnage, which shows strength.
Currently, the XRP / USD pair is facing resistance to moving averages. If this is crossed, the downtrend line is the next resistance. We believe there will be a strong defense of this area from the bears.
After going through the downtrend line, the digital currency could rise up to $ 0.565 and over $ 0.625. Flat moving averages and RSI near the midpoint suggest distance learning in the short run.
On the downside, a break in the uptrend line and $ 0.37185 will invite the sale which may result in a decline to $ 0.24508.
ETH / USD
The bulls are trying to keep Ethereum above the year-end lows of $ 167.32 since 12 September. On November 15, the price fell to a low of $ 171.36, where purchases have emerged.
Any interruption of $ 167.32 will resume the downward trend, plunging the ETH / USD pair to the lower levels of $ 136 and $ 110. The 20-day EMA has started to decline while the RSI is down. close to oversold levels, which shows that bears have a firm grip in the short term.
However, if the bulls rebound from the support and sustain above $ 188.35, the probability of consolidation will increase. The first indication of a new uptrend will appear when the digital currency will remain above $ 249.93.
XLM / USD
Stellar continues to trade within the ascending channel. However, its minimum intraday of $ 0.21494424 on November 15 triggered our suggested stop loss of $ 0.22. Over the past two days, bulls have aggressively acquired sharp declines, which is a positive sign. This shows that buyers are using lower prices to add to their position.
Moving averages are currently flat and the RSI is close to 50 levels, which indicates short-term consolidation. If this channel support line is valid, the XLM / USD pair is likely to move up the channel. We will wait for a new configuration of purchases before proposing long positions.
EOS / USD
EOS broke below $ 4.403 support on November 15th, but the purchase at lower levels pushed prices above it. Currently, the bears are still trying to break under the support and lower prices in the next support zone of $ 4.1778- $ 3.8723.
The EMA down 20 days and the RSI in the negative zone show that the sellers have the upper hand. The downward trend will resume with a decline of less than $ 3.8723.
If the bulls manage to defend the support zone between $ 4.1778- $ 3.8723, the EOS / USD pair will extend their stay within the range. We will wait for it to stabilize and show signs of a trend reversal before becoming positive.
LTC / USD
Litecoin has made successive lows from the beginning of the year to November 14 and 15, which shows that it is one of the weakest cryptocurrencies.
After breaking under the $ 47,246 support on November 14th, it followed a new low the next day, which was close to our first lower $ 40 goal. Even though prices have rebounded off the lows, the pullback lacks strength . Even small intraday meetings meet strong selling pressures.
If the LTC / USD pair breaks by $ 40, it can switch to support after $ 32. Falling moving averages and RSI in the oversold zone show that the sellers are in charge.
The first signs of recovery will be when the digital currency rises above $ 50 and supports it. Until then, every pullback will be sold.
ADA / USD
Cardano broke the critical support of $ 0.060105 on November 15, but the bears failed to keep below the lows.
The bulls are currently trying to keep prices above $ 0.060105, while the bears are trying to break under it.
If the bears succeed, the ADA / USD pair may slip to $ 0.043722. However, if the bulls are successful, the digital currency will extend its consolidation into the $ 0.060105- $ 0.094256 range.
XMR / USD
Monero rebounded critical support for $ 81 on November 15, but the highest levels are attracting bears. A break of $ 81 will resume the downtrend and drive prices down to support below $ 61.50.
If the bulls manage to hold $ 81, a withdrawal to $ 100,453 is likely. If the price rises above $ 100.453, the XMR / USD pair may prolong its stay in the interval. We will wait for a confirmation that the short-term fund is in place before suggesting a trade.
TRX / USD
The bulls tried to keep TRON above the critical support at $ 0.0183. Any break at this level can result in a fall of $ 0.01587681, which is the intra-day low of August 14th. If even this level breaks down, the next support to look downward is $ 0.01595383.
If the $ 0.0183 level is valid, the TRX / USD pair can extend its stay within the wide range of $ 0.0183- $ 0.02815521. We will wait for the rebound to show strength before formulating a bullish opinion. A rally above $ 0.02815521 will indicate the start of a new uptrend. Until then, we recommend that traders remain on the sidelines.
DASH / USD
Dash is currently trying to maintain support for $ 129.58. If the bears break below this level, the next stop is $ 113. If this level also collapses, the slide can extend up to $ 87.
Downward moving averages and RSI near the oversold level show that bears have the upper hand and the path of least resistance is downward.
However, if the bulls manage to defend the $ 129.58 level, a 20-day EMA rebound is possible, followed by a shift to the bearish trend line. We will wait for the DASH / USD pair to remain above the downtrend line before becoming positive.
Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. Analysis charts are provided by TradingView.